Monthly Market and Portfolio Review
| Indexes | Monthly Streak |
| TSX: | 9 – month winning streak |
| S&P: | 1 – month winning streak |
| DJIA: | 9 – month winning streak |
| Nasdaq: | 1 – month winning streak |
January was a bit of a rollercoaster for markets. Indexes pushed to new highs, pulled back to catch their breath, and climbed again, before fading late in the month but still finishing in positive territory. Volatility (also known as buying opportunities 😊) was the name of the game.
Both the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) extended winning streaks that began in May 2025, after the US shook up the global trading system, briefly sending markets lower. The S&P 500 (S&P) and Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq) also returned to the win column after December’s slip. Among the US indexes, the S&P stood out, setting six record-high closes during the month and briefly crossing the 7,000-point level on January 28, while the DJIA notched four new record closes. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq flirted with record territory but couldn’t quite lock in a new closing high.
Volatility ran through the entire month, but the underlying tone remained constructive. Investor optimism was strongest around the big technology and AI-related names, which continued to do much of the heavy lifting. Solid earnings expectations and ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) enthusiasm helped lift the S&P and gave the Nasdaq enough momentum to finish higher, while that leadership also steadied the broader market and allowed the DJIA to grind upward despite numerous swings. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, tariff threats, and shifting expectations around interest rates and the next Fed Chair sparked short-lived pullbacks. A few late-month earnings disappointments from members of the Magnificent 7 served as a reminder of how concentrated index leadership still is –but they didn’t derail the broader trend.
Precious metals added some colour to the month, though they weren’t major drivers of US equity markets. Gold and silver rallied early as investors looked for hedges against uncertainty, with silver grabbing most of the headlines. Those gains reversed late in January as a stronger American dollar and higher bond yields triggered sharp pullbacks. While metals influenced sentiment at times, US markets were ultimately far more driven by earnings, AI optimism, and shifting macro and policy expectations.
In Canada, January was a strong month for the TSX, which quietly stole the spotlight, posting eleven new record highs – more than the S&P and DJIA combined. The Canadian market rode a wave of optimism driven by energy and basic materials stocks, which benefited from stronger commodity prices early in the year. Oil and natural gas companies moved higher as supply concerns and global demand expectations supported prices. Gold climbed above US$5,500 for the first time as investors sought safe havens amid economic uncertainty, while silver surged above US$100 for the first time ever on strong industrial demand. Strength across precious and industrial metals added further momentum to the index.
Financials played their part as well, with banks and insurance companies posting steady gains as investors looked for stability amid broader market swings. Unlike the US markets, where technology and AI were the main drivers, the TSX’s rally was more diversified across traditional Canadian sectors like financials, energy, and basic materials. That mix helped keep the index moving steadily higher, even during periods of volatility.
By month-end, the major indexes finished with modest gains, even though the path there was anything but smooth. January set the tone for 2026 as a year where fundamentals still matter, AI remains a powerful driver, and short-term headlines can create noise without changing the bigger picture. At the same time, Canada’s resource-heavy market continues to benefit from global demand and steady investor interest in commodities, helping start the year on solid footing.
| Portfolio | Monthly Streak | |
| Portfolio 1: | 3 – month losing streak | |
| Portfolio 2: | 1 – month losing streak | |
| Portfolio 3: | 1 – month losing streak |
January ended on a sour note for the portfolios, with all three finishing lower than expected. ☹ After a strong first week where every portfolio was in the green, volatility quickly took over: for the rest of the month, all three portfolios posted weekly losses – except for Portfolio 2, which managed a small win in the third week.
Portfolio 1 held up the best, finishing essentially flat after a month of swings. Early gains gave way to pullbacks in growth and AI-related names, but the broader picture was better than the top line suggested. Cameco (TSE: CCO) repeatedly hit record highs, while energy holdings and steady names like TD Bank (TSE: TD) and Walmart (NASD: WMT) helped stabilize performance. Nvidia (NASD: NVDA), the largest holding, was a key swing factor – cushioning losses at times but adding volatility at others. Late-month drops in Shopify (TSE: SHOP), The Trade Desk (NASD: TTD), Navitas (NASD: NVTS), Constellation Software (TSE: CSU), and Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) weighed on results, yet overall, the portfolio showed resilience in a tricky market.
Portfolio 2 finished down 1.5%, navigating a choppy month with steady support from energy and defensive holdings. Aritzia (TSE: ATZ) was a bright spot, surging to a record high on strong earnings. Meanwhile, the Bank of Nova Scotia (TSE: BNS) and TC Energy (TSE: TRP) provided reliable stability, while technology companies like Take-Two Interactive Software (NASD: TTWO) weighed on performance in mid- and late-January, but roughly half of holdings rose most weeks, limiting the impact of concentrated declines. January reinforced the portfolio’s balanced approach, showing how a mix of energy, defensives, and selective growth can help weather volatility.
Portfolio 3 took the hardest hit, down 4.7%, largely because of its largest positions. Broad-based gains from smaller holdings provided some cushion, with TD Bank setting a record high and other defensive and energy names adding stability. Nvidia and Shopify remained the key swing factors – modest gains in Nvidia helped limit losses, while sharp drops in Shopify drove much of the decline. Overall, about half of the portfolio’s holdings finished higher each week, softening the impact of concentrated losses. January highlighted the risk of heavy exposure to a few large positions, but also the value of steady contributions from the rest of the portfolio in a turbulent market.
In the January 9 ‘Weekly Update,’ I mentioned how January often sets the tone for the year – the so-called “January barometer,” which suggests the S&P’s performance in the first month can hint at its full-year direction. This year wasn’t as strong as last January, when the S&P gained 2.7%, but a 1.4% rise still kept the index in positive territory. Fingers crossed the January effect foreshadows the markets in 2026! As for the portfolios, there’s no clear barometer – they got off to a mixed start in 2025 but went on to post solid gains by year end. So, let’s hope the January barometer holds for the indexes, and that it stays irrelevant for the portfolios and they all get back in the win column next month. 😊
What My Three Portfolios Did in January
Portfolio 1 for January 2026: DOWN 
Activity
Sold: TD Investment Savings TDB8150 (TSE: TDB8150). See January 23, 2026, update.
Bought: iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (TSE: XGD). See January 23, 2026, update.
Dividends Received this month:
Companies followed by DRIP (Dividend Re-Investment Plan) indicate additional shares were purchased with the dividend. Any cash leftover was added to the cash balance.
Canadian $
Telus (TSE: T)
Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN) DRIP
BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: HOM.U)
BCE Inc. (TSE: BCE)
Decisive Dividend Corp. (TSE: DE) DRIP
Constellation Software Inc (TSE: CSU)
US $
Walmart (NASD: WMT)
Quarterly Reports
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on January 20, 2026
Celestica Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on Jan 29, 2026
Visa Inc.
First quarter 2025 financial results on Jan 29, 2026
Apple Inc.
First quarter 2026 financial results on Jan 29, 2026
Canadian National Railway Company
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on Jan 30, 2026
Portfolio 2 for January 2026: DOWN
Activity
No significant activity to report this month.
Dividends Received this month:
Canadian $
Telus (TSE: T)
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (TSE: CNQ)
Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (TSE: BEP.UN)
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (TSE: BIP.UN) DRIP
Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN)
BCE Inc. (TSE: BCE)
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: SRU.UN) DRIP
Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN)
Whitecap Resources (TSE: WCP) DRIP
South Bow Corporation (TSE: SOBO)
US $
Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS)
BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: HOM.U)
Quarterly Reports
Aritzia Inc.
Third quarter 2026 financial results on January 8, 2026
Microsoft Corp.
Second quarter 2026 financial results on Jan 28, 2026
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on January 30, 2026
Portfolio 3 for January 2026: DOWN
Activity
Bought: Rocket Lab USA (NASD: RKLB). See January 23, 2026, update.
Sold: Covered Call of Nvidia shares. See January 30, 2026, update.
Dividends Received this month:
Canadian $
Alvopetro Energy Ltd (TSE: ALV)
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: SRU.UN) DRIP
Goeasy Ltd. (TSE: GSY)
TD US Equity Index ETF (TSX: TPU)
US $
No US$ dividends this past month.
Quarterly Reports
Microsoft Corp.
See report under Portfolio 2.
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
See report under Portfolio 2.