The Canada-US Trade War: What’s Really Going On?
The headlines make the Canada-US trade war sound simple: America is running a huge trade deficit with Canada, so tariffs are the answer. But is it really that simple? A closer look at the numbers – and who actually pays for tariffs – tells a very different story.
AI Spending: When Hype Meets Reality
AI stocks have been back in focus, but not for the reasons that drove their earlier surge. After pushing to fresh highs, parts of the sector have started to cool as investors take a closer look at what’s actually fuelling the rally beneath the surface. The story is shifting from pure excitement around artificial intelligence to something more grounded – the rising cost of building it.
What was once framed as a software-driven revolution is increasingly looking like an infrastructure buildout, with massive spending going into chips, data centres, networking, and energy systems. That shift is starting to raise new questions about funding, profitability, and how long this level of investment can realistically continue without more pressure on balance sheets.
This week I discuss what’s driving the latest move in AI-linked stocks, why spending has become the central theme, and how that ripple effect is starting to show up across the broader market.
When I got back into investing, one of the most common terms I heard was valuation. I knew what value was – one always wants to get good value for their money, or not overpay for an item. But the term “valuation” seemed a bit different, although I could never quite put my finger on why it felt separate from simply “getting good value for your money.” The difference, I eventually realized, is that in investing, price and value don’t always move together – and that gap between the two is where a lot of opportunity (and risk) tends to show up. This week, I’ll break down what valuation actually means and why it matters when you’re trying to get good value for your money in the stock market.
September flipped the script on its usual reputation as a tough month for stocks. North American markets finished strong, capping a solid third quarter and extending impressive streaks of gains. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index surged 5.1%, while the S&P 500 climbed 3.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 5.6%. Record highs were the theme of the month: the Nasdaq and S&P hit multiple peaks, delivering their best September since 2010 and strongest third quarter since 2020, while the Dow notched its fifth straight monthly gain. Up north, the TSX also marked its fifth consecutive monthly advance.
Let’s take a quick look at what moved the markets and how my three portfolios performed in September…
Decisions, Decisions
This week, all eyes were on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) as both central banks faced the same question: should they finally ease up on high interest rates? With inflation cooling, jobless claims ticking higher, and consumers growing cautious, markets were betting heavily on cuts – and both banks delivered. For the Fed, it was the first cut since December 2024, while the BoC hadn’t lowered its benchmark rate since March 2025.
What Happens When Central Banks Cut Rates?
When central banks cut rates, it’s like turning down the interest on your credit card or mortgage – borrowing gets cheaper, and spending gets easier. But depending on whether it’s the BoC, the Fed, or both, the ripple effects for us investors can look a little different.
How Jobs and Prices Drive Rate Cuts
Recently the US labour market has been flashing signs of weakness, and this week’s revisions pushed job numbers even lower. That matters because the strength of the labour market often sets the tone for the economy – more jobs usually mean more spending, while slower job growth suggests things may be cooling. Against that backdrop, attention this past week turned to two key inflation reports: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).