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Weekly Update for the week ending September 19, 2025

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Decisions, Decisions

This week, all eyes were on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) as both central banks faced the same question: should they finally ease up on high interest rates? With inflation cooling, jobless claims ticking higher, and consumers growing cautious, markets were betting heavily on cuts – and both banks delivered. For the Fed, it was the first cut since December 2024, while the BoC hadn’t lowered its benchmark rate since March 2025.

What Happens When Central Banks Cut Rates?

When central banks cut rates, it’s like turning down the interest on your credit card or mortgage – borrowing gets cheaper, and spending gets easier. But depending on whether it’s the BoC, the Fed, or both, the ripple effects for us investors can look a little different.

The Bank of Canada Lowers Rates

Here at home, lower rates usually mean more affordable mortgages, loans, and business borrowing. That can fire up consumer spending and give Canadian companies a boost, with investors often cheering the move.

There’s another layer, though: a rate cut often weakens the Canadian dollar. Exporters love it because their goods look cheaper abroad, but it also makes imports more expensive. For investors, a weaker loonie can make US stocks in your portfolio look more valuable once they’re converted back into Canadian dollars.

The Fed Lowers Rates

When the Fed makes a move, the whole world feels it. Lower US rates mean cheaper borrowing in the largest economy on the planet – and that often sparks a rally in American stocks. Since US markets are the heavyweight in global investing, optimism there tends to spill over everywhere.

For Canadians, there’s a twist: if the Fed cuts rates while the Bank of Canada keeps theirs steady, our dollar (the loonie) can get stronger compared to the US dollar. When that happens, Canadians who own US stocks might see smaller gains once those profits are converted back into Canadian dollars.

Both Central Banks Lower Rates

This week the stars aligned – both the BoC and the Fed cut rates at the same time. That kind of synchronized easing doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it usually gives stocks in both countries a tailwind. Cheaper borrowing fuels growth, and with both currencies moving in step, the loonie doesn’t swing too far one way or the other.

For Canadian investors, that’s often one of the friendliest backdrops around: Canadian holdings get a lift, US stocks ride the wave of Fed optimism, and currency swings don’t bite into returns as much.

The Bottom Line

Rate cuts can be like a shot of caffeine for markets – giving growth a quick jolt and often pushing stocks higher in the short run. But it’s always worth remembering why rates are being cut. If central banks are easing because the economy is losing steam, bumps in the road may still lie ahead. Still, when both central banks ease in sync, history shows it often smooths the ride for portfolios on both sides of the border.

Of course, markets don’t always stick to the script. History suggests synchronized cuts give portfolios a lift – but as we know, history doesn’t always repeat. Let’s see how things actually played out this week. 😊

Items that may only interest or educate me ….

Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, …

Canadian Economic news

This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The August CPI brought a surprise dip, with prices falling 0.1% month-over-month after a 0.3% rise in July. Analysts had expected a small 0.1% increase, so the softer number caught investors’ attention. On a yearly basis, inflation ticked up to 1.9% from 1.7% in July, just shy of the 2.0% forecast.

Food costs once again led the gains, climbing 3.4% year-over-year, while gasoline posted the steepest drop, falling 12.7%. Because the decline in gas prices wasn’t as steep as in June, it actually nudged the headline inflation rate slightly higher in July. On a monthly basis, gas prices rose 1.4%, while categories like recreation, education, and reading slipped 1.2%.

Shelter costs, which cover things like rent and mortgages, are proving stubborn. They eased to 2.6% in July from 3.0% in June, but housing expenses usually move more slowly than other prices. For many Canadians, this stickiness in shelter costs keeps the cost of living feeling high, even when overall inflation is cooling.

Core inflation, which strips out more volatile items like food and gas, gives a clearer sense of the underlying trend. In July, it fell 0.2% on the month, while the annual pace slowed to 2.4% from 2.5% in June. That’s edging closer to the BoC’s 2% target, a sign that price pressures are easing beneath the surface.

All told, inflation is still comfortably within the Bank’s 1%–3% target range, though core measures are still a little sticky. That leaves room for rate cuts, but the Bank may be cautious about moving too quickly unless underlying pressures ease further. Still, this report gave investors more confidence that a 0.25% cut was likely at the September 17 meeting – something markets were already betting on.

BoC Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada delivered a widely expected 0.25% cut this week, bringing the benchmark rate down to 2.5%. It’s the first move lower since March 2025, after several meetings on pause.

The decision comes as the economy continues to lose steam. Gross Domestic Product shrank in the second quarter, exports are struggling, and the labour market is softening with unemployment now above 7%. Inflation, meanwhile, is holding within the Bank’s 1%-3% target range, with core measures edging closer to 2% – giving policymakers some room to shift their focus from fighting inflation to supporting growth.

Governor Tiff Macklem pointed to “cracks” in the labour market. Fewer jobs are being created, unemployment is climbing, and wage growth isn’t keeping pace with living costs. A weaker job market usually leads to softer consumer spending – the engine that drives much of Canada’s economy.

Trade is another trouble spot. The US – Canada’s biggest customer, buying about three-quarters of our exports – has pulled back on buying Canadian goods and services. Ongoing trade war tensions, tariffs, and slower US demand have led to a sharp drop in Canadian shipments south of the border. Because Canada leans so heavily on that market, weaker US demand quickly ripples through Canadian businesses, jobs, and investment.

Put together, these cracks in jobs and trade paint a picture of an economy losing momentum, which is why the Bank stepped in with a rate cut to help cushion the slowdown.

For us Canadians, today’s cut means a bit of relief on borrowing costs, especially for anyone carrying variable-rate mortgages or lines of credit. For us investors, though, rate cuts are a mixed bag. Cheaper borrowing costs can give growth-oriented companies a boost, but the Bank’s cautious tone is a reminder that the slowdown is real. Markets are already betting on another cut before year-end, but whether it happens will depend on how inflation trends and whether the job market keeps weakening.

Retail Sales

According to Statistics Canada, July turned out to be a challenging month for Canadian retailers. Sales fell 0.8%, right in line with expectations, after a solid 1.5% gain in June. On a yearly basis, growth also slowed, with sales up 4.0% compared to 6.6% in June.

Eight of nine retail categories saw declines. The one exception was “other motor vehicle dealers” – businesses that sell things like RVs, motorcycles, ATVs, and Jet Skis – which posted a healthy 5.0% jump. On the flip side, sporting goods, hobby, and bookstores had the steepest drop, down 4.5%. Looking at the past year, used car dealers led the way with a 17.0% surge, while gas stations were hit hardest, down 6.5%.

If you strip out the more volatile categories like autos, fuel, and parts, what economists call “core retail sales”, the picture looks weaker. Core sales fell 1.2% in July after a strong 2.2% gain in June, showing that households pulled back on everyday spending like food and clothing. Year over year, core sales were still higher by 4.5%, though growth has cooled from June’s 6.8% pace.

The July dip highlights how stretched consumers are becoming, and if it continues, it could weigh on Canada’s economic growth. The silver lining is that an early estimate for August points to a 1.0% rebound, which could soften July’s blow and keep momentum from slipping further.

Canadian Market Volatility

Canada’s volatility gauge, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), opened the week at 10.39, hovered between 11.5 and 10, and then finished at 9.60. It wasn’t all downhill, though. There was a brief spike to 16 following the release of the August inflation data before quickly dropping below 12, and another jump above 13 after the BoC’s and Fed’s rate decisions.

If you’re new to it, the VIXC is basically a barometer of investor nerves in Canada. When it spikes, it means traders are bracing for bumps ahead, but when it drifts lower, confidence is generally stronger. With the index closing the week near its lows, the mood on Bay Street looked more relaxed than rattled.

US Economic news

This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Retail Sales

US consumers kept spending in August, with retail sales rising 0.6%. That’s stronger than July’s 0.5% gain and well ahead of forecasts for just 0.2% increase in sales. Compared with last year, sales were up 5.0%, showing consumers are still carrying a lot of the economic weight.

Sporting goods, hobbies, music, and bookstores posted a healthy 0.8% jump, while furniture and home furnishings slipped 0.3%. Looking over the past year, spending at miscellaneous retailers surged 10.7%, but building materials and garden supplies saw sales fall 2.3%.

Core retail sales – which exclude autos, parts, and gasoline – rose 0.7% in August, easily topping July’s 0.2% increase, and the year-over-year pace accelerated from 4.4% to 5.4%.

Part of the increase in consumer spending may reflect shoppers moving up purchases to get ahead of expected tariff-driven price hikes, meaning some demand is being “pulled forward.” Some of the rise in retail sales is also likely due to higher prices rather than more items being bought – inflation makes purchases cost more, which boosts nominal sales. Still, the strength in consumer spending sends mixed signals to the Fed. On one hand, it shows the economy isn’t rolling over; on the other, it keeps inflation risks alive. That probably rules out a large rate cut, though a smaller 0.25% trim is still very much on the table, especially as the labour market shows signs of cooling.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Decision

As widely expected, the Fed announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.00%–4.25%. This marks the first reduction since December 2024, signaling a shift in the Fed’s approach to economic challenges. Even more encouraging for investors, the Fed expects two more cuts before the end of the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a “risk management” decision, highlighting concerns over a cooling labour market and slightly elevated inflation. Job gains have slowed, unemployment has edged up, and the Fed is carefully balancing the need to support employment while managing inflation risks.

Historically, FOMC votes are often unanimous or near unanimous. This time, the committee voted 11–1 in favor of the 0.25% cut, with newly appointed member Stephen Miran dissenting. Miran, a Trump appointee confirmed just days before the meeting, advocated for a larger 0.5% reduction.

Cheaper borrowing costs help US consumers (loans, credit cards, mortgages) and businesses (expansion, hiring). For Canada, increased US spending and corporate activity can boost exports and equities, especially in growth and industrial sectors, though trade tensions may limit the upside. Canadian investors may see indirect gains from lower financing costs and stronger cross-border demand.

American Market Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), better known as the market’s “fear gauge,” had a bit of a rollercoaster this week. It started at 14.74, spiked to 16.68 right before the Fed’s rate decision, and then slid back under 15 once investors exhaled on the news. The calm didn’t last long, though – the VIX climbed above 16 again as markets waited for updates from the Trump–Xi phone call, before finally settling at 15.46.

Think of the VIX as a market mood ring. When it’s in the 12 to 20 range, investors are generally calm and steady. Once it pushes higher, it’s a sign traders are growing uneasy and bracing for bumpier days ahead. A rising VIX doesn’t always mean panic, but it does mean caution is creeping back into the market.

Weekly Market and Portfolio Review

For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) gained 1.7%, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.2%, the DJIA (INDU) advanced 1.0% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) surged 2.2 3.4%.

A graph with different colored lines representing the weekly progress of the four major North American indexes.
The weekly progress of the four major North American indexes.
Index Weekly Streak
TSX: 7 – week winning streak
S&P: 3 – week winning streak
DJIA: 2 – week winning streak
Nasdaq: 3 – week winning streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. After a pullback last Friday, markets wasted no time regaining momentum. The S&P 500 (S&P) crossed 6,600 for the first time, the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) stretched its record-setting streak to six sessions, and the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX) added fresh highs of its own. Then, after this week’s rate decisions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) joined the rally, with all four major North American indexes closing at record highs for two straight days. For the TSX, the week marked its seventh straight weekly gain – its longest winning streak since February 2024.

The spotlight was firmly on the Fed. Investors were looking for a Goldilocks outcome: a labour market soft enough to call for cuts but not so fragile that it signalled deeper trouble. That’s largely what they got. The Fed voted 11–1 to trim rates by 0.25%, with Chair Jerome Powell underscoring that the cooling jobs market was a top concern. He also left the door open to two more cuts before year-end, a signal that added fuel to the rally.

The lone dissenter was Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly confirmed Fed governor. Approved by the Senate in a razor-thin 48–47 vote just two days earlier, Miran pushed for a steeper 0.5% cut. His appointment drew scrutiny since he only took a leave from his White House role instead of resigning outright, raising questions about his independence. Meanwhile, Governor Lisa Cook – whom Trump unsuccessfully tried to remove – backed the majority in supporting the quarter-point move.

Markets wobbled immediately after the announcement, with the Nasdaq and S&P slipping into the red. But hesitation quickly faded, and by the next day, all three major US indexes were back at record highs.

Adding more spark to the rally, Nvidia (NASD: NVDA) unveiled a headline-making US$5 billion investment in Intel (NASD: INTC). The move lit a fire under the semiconductor space and gave the Nasdaq and S&P another push higher. Intel had one of its strongest days in decades, helping the broader technology sector shine. Overall, it was a strong week for heavyweight technology companies, especially the Magnificent 7, as investors piled back into the big growth names.

On the trade front, tensions cooled slightly. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone, reopening dialogue. Hints of progress on US ownership issues around TikTok and signs that both sides may soften their tariff stances lifted sentiment and chipped away at the “uncertainty tax” weighing on markets.

In Canada, Canadian markets also got a lift from developments moving in the same direction. Softer-than-expected inflation data strengthened the case for a rate cut, and the BoC delivered, lowering its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 2.50% – the lowest in three years. Governor Tiff Macklem pointed to a weakening labour market, with job losses and rising unemployment, along with shrinking exports tied to US tariffs, as reasons to act. Just hours later, the Fed matched with its own 0.25% cut. The back-to-back decisions gave investors confidence to shift money back into stocks and away from safer assets like cash and bonds, boosting optimism about the near-term outlook. Gold prices also continued their climb, logging a fifth straight weekly gain and helping push the TSX to new record highs.

Portfolio Weekly Streak
Portfolio 1: 3 – week winning streak
Portfolio 2: 7 – week winning streak
Portfolio 3: 2 – week winning streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. It was another solid week for all three of my portfolios, each finishing in the green. The back-to-back rate cuts in Canada and the US gave investors confidence to move money back into stocks, and the growth-oriented technology sector was the biggest winner. Since all three portfolios lean into the technology sector, some more than others, they rode that wave of optimism higher.

Portfolio 1 gained 1.2 performances from CrowdStrike (NASD: CRWD) up 14%, Navitas Semiconductor (NASD: NVTS) up 13%, Lattice Semiconductor (NASD: LSCC) up 11%, and Grab Holdings (NASD: GRAB) up 10%. Cameco (TSE: CCO), Alphabet (NASD: GOOGL), and TD Bank (TSE: TD) also closed at record highs. The upside might have been even better if not for Nvidia, which found itself caught between US -China trade tensions. After reports that China’s internet regulator told major firms not to buy Nvidia’s China-specific chip, the stock briefly dipped before recovering to eke out a 0.1% weekly gain.

Portfolio 2 added 0.7%, not flashy but enough to extend its weekly win streak to seven. Again, 59% of holdings finished higher, led by TC Energy (TSE: TRP), which notched a record high. Slow and steady still moves the needle, and a gain is a gain. 😊

Portfolio 3 led the pack, climbing 1.9%. A strong 72% of holdings posted gains, including an 11% jump for Lithium Americas (TSE: LAC) and new record highs for the Royal Bank of Canada (TSE: RY) and TD Bank. Like Portfolio 1, the upside was capped somewhat by Nvidia’s trade-war limbo, but the portfolio still delivered the best return of the three.

All in all, it’s shaping up to be a strong month. The major indexes have each chalked up at least two straight weekly gains, and all three portfolios are riding multi-week winning streaks of their own. With both central banks cutting rates, the script played out just as hoped – and for now, momentum is clearly on the side of us investors. 😊

Weekly Portfolio & Index performance
Weekly Portfolio & Index performance for the week ended September 19, 2025.

Companies on the Radar

Stocks on my Radar This week brought some changes to my radar list – one company flew off while another came in for a landing. Palo Alto Networks (NASD: PANW) is no longer on my radar. It’s a strong cybersecurity player, but since I already own two companies in the space, I decided there’s no need to add another. If I didn’t already have that exposure, PANW would be tough to pass up.

Taking its place is Tornado Infrastructure Equipment Ltd. (TSEV: TGH), a small but intriguing Canadian industrial company. Tornado designs, builds, and sells hydrovac trucks across North America, while also generating recurring revenue through rentals, parts, and maintenance – making it more than just a pure equipment play. Hydrovac trucks are essential for digging around pipes and cables without causing damage, so more projects usually mean more demand. With infrastructure spending ramping up and safer-digging technology gaining traction, Tornado has momentum and several tailwinds at its back. These include oil and gas projects as well as investments by all levels of government in replacing and expanding aging water, sewer, and telecom systems. Still, as with many smaller companies, risks remain: leverage, margin pressure, and the need for consistent execution.

As a micro-cap with a valuation around C$250–260 million, due diligence is essential – something I plan to do. For now, it looks interesting and joins the four holdovers from last week on my radar.

  • Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): a Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings – typically under 100 units – across Western Canada. It buys underperforming properties at below-market prices, renovates them, and increases rental income through improved operations. With strong demand for rental housing, a repeatable value-add strategy, and a solid balance sheet, Mainstreet offers a compelling mix of income and growth. Shares currently trade below net asset value, giving investors a margin of safety alongside steady cash flow and long-term upside.
  • Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET): an American company that designs and sells advanced networking hardware and software, with a focus on high-speed, low-latency switches for its key markets: data centres, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and financial trading. The company has been riding the AI tailwind with solid demand from its core markets, especially in AI and cloud data centres. It also has a hefty share buyback program and increasing investments from some of the top institutional investment companies.
  • Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): a large cap American company that is a leader in specialty glass, optical fiber, environmental technology, life sciences, and other specialty glasses. They have been the supplier of the glass used in Apple’s iPhones since 2007, and they are riding the tailwind of an AI-driven fiber optic boom.
  • Copart (NASD: CPRT): this American company runs one of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platforms, specializing in salvaging cars from accidents and natural disasters. It sells on behalf of insurers, dealerships, rental companies, and individuals. Copart earns revenue through transaction fees, storage, transportation, and listing services. Its digital model, global buyer network, and asset-light approach support strong margins and steady growth. With no long-term debt and rising tailwinds from vehicle values and insurance claims, it’s a steady growth story that’s earned a spot on my radar.

As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.

The Radar Check was last updated September 19, 2025.

Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.

 

That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!

 

Weekly Update for the week ending September 12, 2025

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How Jobs and Prices Drive Rate Cuts

Recently the US labour market has been flashing signs of weakness, and this week’s revisions pushed job numbers even lower. That matters because the strength of the labour market often sets the tone for the economy – more jobs usually mean more spending, while slower job growth suggests things may be cooling. Against that backdrop, attention this past week turned to two key inflation reports: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The PPI measures price changes at the wholesale level – what businesses are paying for things like raw materials and supplies. If those costs rise, companies may try to pass them on to consumers. CPI, on the other hand, tracks what households actually pay for everyday goods and services like groceries, rent, and gas. For example, PPI is like the cost of flour for a bakery, while CPI is the price of the bread you buy at the store. If the cost of flour (PPI) goes up, bakeries may eventually raise the price of bread (CPI) to cover their higher expenses. Together, these two reports show us how inflation is moving through the system – from businesses to consumers.

This week’s results painted a mixed picture. PPI came in softer than expected, signalling cooling wholesale inflation and giving the Fed some breathing room to ease, especially as the labour market softens. CPI, however, told a different story: headline, or all items, inflation ran hotter than forecast in August, even as core CPI held steady.

That tug-of-war leaves the Fed with a tricky balancing act. Its “dual mandate” calls for both stable prices (keeping inflation in check) and maximum employment. For the past few years, the Fed has focused on bringing inflation down to its 2% target, but with the labour market showing signs of weakening, the emphasis is now shifting toward jobs. Cutting interest rates makes borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment, which can help businesses hire more. As employment reports continue trending lower through revisions, many expect a rate cut next week. The question is how big – a 0.25% move looks more likely than the 0.5% cut some were hoping for. Either way, it should give markets a welcome boost.

Now that we understand the tug-of-war between jobs and inflation, and with the Fed’s next moves on most investor’s mind, let’s see how the markets reacted this past week and how my three portfolios held up.

Items that may only interest or educate me ….

Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….

Canadian Economic news

This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Canadian Market Volatility

Canada’s volatility gauge, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), opened the week at 10.3 and spent most of the time drifting between 10 and 11. The only drama came midweek, when it briefly spiked above 15 after Ottawa announced five major projects would be eligible for fast-track approval. The jump was short-lived, and the index quickly slid back down, finishing at 10.72.

Think of the VIXC as Canada’s version of a “fear gauge.” It rises when investors get jittery over uncertainty or surprise news and falls when markets settle down. With the index ending near its lows, sentiment leaned more toward calm than caution.

US Economic news

This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August CPI report showed inflation running a little hotter than expected. Headline, or all items, CPI rose 0.4% on the month, above the 0.3% forecast and up from July’s 0.2%. On a yearly basis, prices are 2.9% higher, compared with 2.7% in July.

Gasoline led the monthly increases with a 1.9% jump, while utility gas service dropped 1.6%. Looking at the past year, utility gas has surged 13.8%, while gasoline has actually fallen 6.6%. Shelter costs – covering mortgages, rent, and homeowner expenses – climbed another 0.4% in August, continuing to put steady pressure on households, though the annual pace edged slightly lower to 3.6%.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and held at 3.1% year-over-year, right in line with forecasts.

For the Fed, this report makes the balancing act even trickier. The labour market is showing cracks, arguing for cuts, but inflation’s persistence may slow down how quickly or how much they ease. Rate cuts are still likely, but the timing just got more complicated.

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed confidence slipping again, with the index dropping to 55.4 in September from 58.2 in August, its lowest level since May and well below the expected 58.0. That marks a 4.8% decline month over month and a steep 21% drop from a year ago. Looking closer, the Current Economic Conditions Index, which gauges how people feel about their finances and job security right now, edged down 0.8% to 61.2, a 3.3% decline from last year. The bigger hit came in the Expectations Index, which looks ahead six months. It sank to 51.8 from 55.9, a 7.3% monthly slide and down more than 30% year over year.

The drop in sentiment was sharper than analysts expected and was prevalent in lower- and middle-income households. Many cited worries about weakening business conditions, a weakening job market, and inflation pressures. Trade policy is also weighing heavily – about 60% of respondents mentioned tariffs without being asked. Sentiment has only partly recovered since April, when President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on imported goods sent confidence tumbling.

American Market Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the “fear gauge” for US stocks, opened the week at 15.21 and drifted steadily lower, closing at 14.76. With no major economic surprises to shake things up, markets stayed calm and played out much as investors expected. For anyone new to the VIX, think of it as a quick snapshot of market nerves – readings between 12 and 20 usually signal calm waters, while anything above 20 suggests traders are bracing for turbulence. The higher it climbs, the more uncertainty is being priced in.

Weekly Market and Portfolio Review

For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 1.6%, the DJIA (INDU) grew 1.0% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) surged 2.0%.

A graph of different colored lines showing the progress of the 4 indexes throughout the week.
The weekly progress of the four major North American indexes.
Index Weekly Streak
TSX: 6 – week winning streak
S&P: 2 – week winning streak
DJIA: 1 – week winning streak
Nasdaq: 2 – week winning streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. It was a record-setting week for the markets, with all four major indexes hitting fresh all-time highs. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX) snapped its eight-day winning streak on Monday but quickly bounced back, posting three straight record closes before easing on Friday. In the US, the S&P 500 (S&P) and Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) each set multiple new highs, with the Nasdaq crossing 22,000 for the first time during a four-day run to end the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also joined in the record breaking fun, breaking above 46,000 for the first time to set its own record high and help snap its two-week losing streak.

The week was driven by a mix of economic, geopolitical, and corporate news. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the US might have to return some tariff revenues if the Supreme Court strikes them down, following an appeals court ruling that found most of them illegal. Meanwhile, oil prices ticked higher as tensions rose in the Middle East and Europe, with Israel targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar and Russia intensifying drone strikes in Ukraine.

On the economic front, investors grew more confident about a Fed rate cut next week. A downward revision to US labour data confirmed the job market is weaker than expected, with weekly jobless claims climbing to their highest since October 2021. Inflation was mixed: consumer prices came in slightly hotter than expected, while wholesale prices cooled, suggesting tariffs may be trickling down to consumers. With jobs softening and inflation steady, many now see a rate cut as all but certain.

Adding fuel to the rally was Oracle (NYSE: ORCL). Despite lacklustre earnings, the company forecast a massive revenue boost tied to surging demand for its cloud services from big-name artificial intelligence (AI) clients. The stock soared more than 35%, its best single-day gain in over 30 years, reigniting excitement around the AI build-out.

Back in Canada, the TSX kept momentum going, supported by growing expectations that both the BoC and the Fed will ease rates in response to weaker labour data in both countries. The big news came from the mining sector, where Canada’s Teck Resources (TSE: TECK) announced a merger with British based Anglo American (LSE: AAL), creating a global copper powerhouse in the second-largest mining deal ever. Energy stocks found support in steady oil prices, while record-high gold prices gave miners an extra lift, leaving Canadian investors cautiously optimistic heading into next week.

All told, it was a week where good news outweighed the bad, with rate cut hopes, a revived AI rally, and surging commodities powering indexes to new records. Still, the backdrop of softening labour data, tariff uncertainty, and rising geopolitical risks means markets aren’t without hurdles. For now though, momentum remains on the bulls’ side – and investors are heading into next week with optimism riding high.

Portfolio Weekly Streak
Portfolio 1: 2 – week winning streak
Portfolio 2: 6 – week winning streak
Portfolio 3: 1 – week winning streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. All three portfolios finally turned green this week, a welcome shift after some choppier stretches.

Portfolio 1 surprised with a solid 1.8% gain, even though less than half its holdings finished higher. Nvidia (NASD: NVDA) was one of the winners, giving the portfolio a big lift. 😊 Kraken Robotics (TSEV: PNG) jumped 20%, Grab Holdings (NASD: GRAB) climbed 15%, and both Cloudflare (NYSE: NET) and Alphabet (NASD: GOOGL) hit all-time highs. The main drag was Trade Desk (NASD: TTD), which tumbled 14% after Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) downgraded the stock over concerns about slowing growth in connected TV and the open web (any website or app that isn’t controlled by one big company) advertising .

Portfolio 2 lost momentum ending the week flat, despite nearly 60% of its holdings rose, including new highs from Take-Two Interactive (NASD: TTWO) and iAG Financial (TSE: IAG). Supremex (TSE: SXP) fell 10% and pulled the portfolio onto the brink of the red, but Microsoft’s (NASD: MSFT) late-week rally prevented the portfolio from sinking into the red. Microsoft shares jumped after the company dodged a hefty European Union fine by agreeing to offer lower-priced Office packages without Teams.

Portfolio 3 ended its four-week skid with a bang, surging 2.3%. Like Portfolio 2, over 59% of its holdings advanced, including Nvidia, the largest holding. While no single stock made an outsized move, the steady gains across the board were enough to put the portfolio firmly back in the win column.

It was great to see all three portfolios finish the week in the green, especially Portfolio 3 after a tough stretch. With rate cuts expected from both central banks, next week could bring more tailwinds, though markets always have a way of surprising us. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic that the momentum will carry through and I’ll be looking for another round of green across the board.

Weekly Portfolio & Index performance
Weekly Portfolio & Index performance for the week ended September 12, 2025.

Companies on the Radar

Stocks on my Radar No new companies made it onto my radar this past week, so the list still sits at five names for now:

  • Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): a Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings – typically under 100 units – across Western Canada. It buys underperforming properties at below-market prices, renovates them, and increases rental income through improved operations. With strong demand for rental housing, a repeatable value-add strategy, and a solid balance sheet, Mainstreet offers a compelling mix of income and growth. Shares currently trade below net asset value, giving investors a margin of safety alongside steady cash flow and long-term upside.
  • Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET): an American company that designs and sells advanced networking hardware and software, with a focus on high-speed, low-latency switches for its key markets: data centres, AI, cloud computing, and financial trading. The company has been riding the AI tailwind with solid demand from its core markets, especially in AI and cloud data centres. It also has a hefty share buyback program and increasing investments from some of the top institutional investment companies.
  • Palo Alto Networks (NASD: PANW) is an American cybersecurity company, providing firewalls, cloud security, and AI-driven tools to companies around the world. It’s seen as a key play on AI-powered cybersecurity and is also benefitting from rising federal spending in this area. The stock can be volatile, but it’s been riding strong AI and cybersecurity tailwinds.
  • Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): a large cap American company that is a leader in specialty glass, optical fiber, environmental technology, life sciences, and other specialty glasses. They have been the supplier of the glass used in Apple’s iPhones since 2007, and they are riding the tailwind of an AI-driven fiber optic boom.
  • Copart (NASD: CPRT): this American company runs one of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platforms, specializing in salvaging cars from accidents and natural disasters. It sells on behalf of insurers, dealerships, rental companies, and individuals. Copart earns revenue through transaction fees, storage, transportation, and listing services. Its digital model, global buyer network, and asset-light approach support strong margins and steady growth. With no long-term debt and rising tailwinds from vehicle values and insurance claims, it’s a steady growth story that’s earned a spot on my radar.

As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.

The Radar Check was last updated September 12, 2025.

Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2..
Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2..
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.

 

That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!

 

Monthly Portfolio Update August 2025

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Monthly Market and Portfolio Review

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. August is usually a sleepy month for markets, with many professional investors off on holiday and trading volumes thin. But this year, the supposedly quiet stretch turned into another winning month. All four major indexes extended their streaks, with the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) chalking up its fifth consecutive monthly gain – up 1.6%, its longest run in nearly a year and a half. The S&P 500 (S&P) added 1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed 3.2%, and the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX) led the pack with a surge of 4.8%, its strongest showing of the summer. For the S&P and DJIA, it marked their longest streak since fall 2024.

The rally was less about confidence in the US economy, which appears to be slowing, and more about strong earnings, especially the heavyweight technology names and the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence (AI) related demand. Inflation held steady, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), while earnings season delivered another boost – especially from Nvidia’s blockbuster results and Apple’s massive US investment plans. That mix kept sentiment upbeat, even when a few speed bumps appeared.

On the global stage, trade remained in focus. The US and China extended their tariff truce and opened new rounds of high-level talks. Both countries remain tightly linked through technology and critical materials, and that interdependence has so far prevented a full-blown trade war.

Politics, however, injected another layer of uncertainty. President Trump tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook in an unprecedented move that shook confidence in central bank independence. Cook is fighting back in court, and nearly 600 economists have publicly defended her, warning that politicizing the Fed could damage stability at home and abroad. Investors are now weighing the risk of Trump stacking the Fed with allies who favour aggressive rate cuts.

While US markets leaned on the technology companies, Canada had its own moment in the sun. The TSX hit record highs, lifted by strong earnings from the big six banks – helped by smaller loan-loss provisions – and a standout quarter from Shopify. Rising commodity prices in oil, gold, and copper added fuel to the rally, while the extended US – China truce provided welcome relief for exporters. Despite mid-month jitters tied to the Fed drama, momentum stayed intact, and analysts see room for the TSX to climb further if trade stability and low interest rates hold.

The month wrapped up with a reminder that risks still loom – softening labour and inflation data, Trump’s intensifying trade war tactics, and his escalating fight with the Fed. Historically, August and September have been the toughest months for the S&P 500, but this August held up its end of the bargain. Now all eyes turn to September to see if the win streaks can keep rolling.

Portfolio Monthly Streak
Portfolio 1: 4 – month winning streak
Portfolio 2: 5 – month winning streak
Portfolio 3: 4 – month winning streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. With all four major indexes finishing August in the green, it was no surprise that all three portfolios managed to extend their winning streaks. Still, the results were a bit of a mixed bag. One portfolio underperformed even the weakest index, the Nasdaq which gained 1.6%, while another barely matched it – both weighed down by Nvidia’s (NASD: NVDA) month long stumble.

Portfolio 1 ended the month up 1.6%, a respectable gain given the turbulence. Shopify (TSE: SHOP), Lattice Semiconductor (NASD: LSCC), Celsius (NASD: CELH), and Apple (NASD: AAPL) all delivered strong advances, while Sea Limited’s (NYSE: SE) earnings surprise and Celestica’s (TSE: CLS) multiple record highs added more fuel. Nvidia’s decline clipped momentum in the back half, but Google (NASD: GOOGL), Cameco (TSE: CCO), and Interactive Brokers (NASD: IBKR) helped offset the Nvidia drag. A steady month overall, with technology companies’ volatility keeping things interesting.

Portfolio 2 was the standout, surging 7.2% as it notched weekly gains across the board. The star of the show was MongoDB (NASD: MDB), soaring 44% on the back of strong earnings. Guardant Health (NASD: GH), Mitek Systems (NASD: MITK), TC Energy (TSE: TRP), and record highs for Microsoft (NASD: MSFT) and Fortis (TSE: FTS) also added to the strength. Even with some softness in the energy companies, MongoDB’s leap carried the portfolio to a stellar month.

Portfolio 3 brought up the rear with a 1.4% gain. It came out of the gate hot, jumping 6.2% at the start of the month thanks to Shopify and goeasy (TSE: GSY). But repeated pullbacks in its two largest positions – Nvidia and Shopify – weighed on the portfolio. Many smaller holdings held up well, but with over half the portfolio tied to its giants, the losses were hard to escape.

All in all, August showed the value of balance. While Nvidia’s pullback weighed on two portfolios, strong performances from other holdings kept all three in the green. Portfolio 2’s breadth of winners really stood out, while Portfolios 1 and 3 were a reminder of how a few large positions can heavily sway results. Diversification continues to prove its worth. August was a pleasant surprise, and I’m hopeful September will break from its tradition of being the worst month for the markets. Fingers crossed. 😊

Monthly Portfolio & Index performance
Monthly Portfolio & Index performance for August 2025.

What My Three Portfolios Did in August

Portfolio 1

Portfolio 1 for August 2025: UP Green Up Arrow, signifying a positive week

Activity

No significant activity to report this month.

Dividends Received this month:

Companies followed by DRIP (Dividend Re-Investment Plan) indicate additional shares were purchased with the dividend. Any cash leftover was added to the cash balance.

Canadian $

BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: HOM.UN)

Bank of Nova Scotia (TSE: BNS)

Pulse Seismic Inc (TSE: PSD) DRIP

Decisive Dividend Corp (TSEV: DE) DRIP

Tourmaline Oil Corp (TSE: TOU)

Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN) DRIP

TMX Group Ltd (TSE: X) DRIP

US $

Apple Inc (NASD: AAPL)

Costco Wholesale Corp (NASD: COST)

Quarterly Reports

Telus Corporation

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 1, 2025

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 4, 2025

Navitas Semiconductor Corporation

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 4, 2025

Skyworks Solutions, Inc

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025

Shopify Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025

Magnite, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025

Decisive Dividend Corporation

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Celsius Holdings, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Trisura Group Ltd.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

BCE Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Datadog, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

The Trade Desk, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

indie Semiconductor, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Formula One Group (Liberty Media Corporation)

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Docebo Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 8, 2025

Sea Limited

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 12, 2025

The Home Depot

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 19, 2025

Walmart Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 21, 2025

Kraken Robotics Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 21, 2025

The Bank of Nova Scotia

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 26, 2025

Nvidia Corporation

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 27, 2025

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 27, 2025

TD Bank Group

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 28, 2025

Portfolio 2 for August 2025: UP Green Up Arrow, signifying a positive week

Activity

No significant activity to report this month.

Dividends Received this month:

Canadian $

Dollarama (TSE: DOL)

SmartCentres REIT (TSE: SRU.U)

Bank of Nova Scotia (TSE: BNS) DRIP

Whitecap Resources (TSE: WCP)

TC Energy (TSE: TRP)

Tourmaline Oil Corp (TSE: TOU)

Dream Industrial Properties REIT (TSE: DIR.UN) DRIP

Pulse Seismic (TSE: PSD) DRIP

Decisive Dividend Corp (TSEV: DE) DRIP

US $

Apple (NASD: AAPL)

BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: HOM.UN)

Costco Wholesale (NASD: COST)

Quarterly Reports

Fortis Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 1, 2025

Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 1, 2025

Telus Corporation

See report under Portfolio 1.

Zoetis Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025

The Walt Disney Company

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025

Airbnb, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025

South Bow Corp.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Mitek Systems, Inc.

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Supremex Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

SmartCentre Real Estate Investment Trust

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

First quarter 2026 financial results on August 7, 2025

Birkenstock Holding plc

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 14, 2025

The Bank of Nova Scotia

See report under Portfolio 1.

MongoDB, Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 26, 2025

Dollarama Inc.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 27, 2025

Portfolio 3 for August 2025: UP Green Up Arrow, signifying a positive week

Activity

No significant activity to report this month.

Dividends Received this month:

Canadian $

SmartCentres REIT (TSE: SRU.U) DRIP

Royal Bank of Canada (TSE: RY)

Enghouse Systems (TSE: ENGH)

US $

No US$ dividends this past week.

Quarterly Reports

Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.

See report under Portfolio 2.

Alvopetro Energy Ltd.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025

Shopify Inc.

See report under Portfolio 1.

Magnite, Inc.

See report under Portfolio 1.

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025

SmartCentre Real Estate Investment Trust

See report under Portfolio 2.

Goeasy Ltd.

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Brookfield Corporation

Second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025

Royal Bank of Canada

Third quarter 2025 financial results on August 27, 2025

Nvidia Corporation

See report under Portfolio 1.

TD Bank Group

See report under Portfolio 1.

 

Weekly Update for the week ending September 5, 2025

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September Slump: Will This Year Be Different?

September has a bit of a bad reputation on Wall Street. Historically, it’s the weakest month for stocks – a pattern often called the “September Effect.” Unlike other market drops tied to clear events, this is more of a seasonal trend. Some say investors pull back after the summer rally to lock in profits. Others point to mutual funds and big institutions rebalancing portfolios ahead of year-end, which adds selling pressure. Add in traders returning from summer holidays with a cautious outlook, and September has often leaned negative.

History has delivered some painful reminders. In 2008, during the financial crisis, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 9% in a single September. In 2001, the 9/11 attacks triggered a steep selloff. More recently, in 2022, the index slid almost 10% as rising interest rates rattled investors.

So, what could make this September another challenging month? Interest rates are still high, and while the Fed has hinted at cuts later this year, uncertainty about timing continues to hang over the market. Higher borrowing costs squeeze corporate profits and weigh on consumer spending. Trade tensions are another wildcard – the recent court ruling against Trump’s tariffs has stirred questions about future policy, and no one wins in trade wars. At the same time, heavyweight technology companies, which have powered much of this year’s gains, are showing bouts of volatility that could spill into broader markets.

Politics add another layer. Former President Trump has stepped up attacks on the Federal Reserve, questioning its independence and suggesting it should align with his agenda. The Fed is supposed to operate above politics to focus on inflation and stability, so when that independence is challenged, investors worry that rate decisions could be driven by politics rather than data. The same concern extends to agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) where Trump recently fired the head of the agency after it delivered a report he didn’t like. The credibility of supposedly independent agencies is crucial for decisions driven by data rather than politically motivated.

Psychology matters too. Investors know September’s track record, and sometimes that very reputation makes traders more cautious, reinforcing the pattern. Still, nothing is set in stone – plenty of Septembers have surprised to the upside. While the month is known as the toughest stretch on average, history also shows that markets don’t always follow the script. Maybe this year will be one of those exceptions. Stay tuned. 😊

With that backdrop in mind, let’s take a look at how the markets moved this past week – and how my three portfolios held up…

Items that may only interest or educate me ….

Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….

Canadian Economic news

This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Labour Force Survey (LFS)

Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s job market weakened again in August, with the economy shedding 65,500 jobs after July’s loss of 40,800. That was a sharp miss from analysts’ expectations of a modest 10,000-job gain. Most of the losses came from service industries such as professional, scientific, technical, transportation, and warehousing. Construction was the lone bright spot, adding about 17,100 positions. Part-time workers and adults aged 25 to 54 bore the brunt of the decline.

The unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%, the highest level since May 2016 outside of the pandemic years, underscoring how much momentum has cooled. Wages, meanwhile, are still edging higher, with average hourly earnings up 3.2% year-over-year, a touch slower than July’s 3.3% pace.

Overall, the August labour report painted a picture of a job market losing steam: back-to-back employment declines, rising unemployment, and uneven wage growth. Analysts now see a 90% chance the BoC will cut interest rates at this month’s meeting, as BoC officials face growing pressure to pivot from fighting inflation to supporting growth.

Canadian Market Volatility

Canada’s volatility gauge, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), opened the week at 14.3, nudged higher by the usual worries that September can be a choppier month for markets. But as the week unfolded, optimism around potential rate cuts in both Canada and the US helped calm nerves. The VIXC gradually eased, spending most of the week hovering between 11 and 10. By week’s end, after fresh labour data reinforced the cooling economy narrative, the index slipped to 9.96 – its lowest point of the week.

Think of the VIXC as a “fear gauge” for the Canadian stock market. When investors feel nervous, often due to uncertainty or sudden news, the index ticks higher. Lower numbers, like where it finished the week, signal calmer sentiment. For anyone new to investing, it’s a useful snapshot of how the market is feeling.

US Economic news

This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Labour data

This week’s labour data from three major reports – the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the ADP Employment Report, and the Employment Situation Summary (ESS) – gives a full snapshot of the US job market. Each report looks at a different angle: JOLTS tracks demand for workers through openings, hires, and quits; ADP previews private-sector payroll growth; and the ESS, also known as the monthly jobs report, delivers the big picture with unemployment, job gains, and wage growth. Together, they show whether the job market is heating up or starting to cool.

JOLTS

The latest JOLTS report showed job openings slipped again, dropping to 7.18 million in July from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June. That’s well below analysts’ forecast of 7.38 million and marks the lowest level in ten months, signaling a cooling job market.

For the first time since April 2021, there are more job seekers than available positions, with the unemployed-to-openings ratio falling just below 1 (0.99). Overall, the report points to easing labour demand and slower hiring momentum. While that’s tough news for job seekers, a softer job market boosts the case for the Fed to cut interest rates later this month.

ADP Employment Report

ADP’s latest report showed private-sector job growth slowing sharply in August, with just 54,000 new positions added – well short of the 65,000 new jobs economists had expected and only slightly more than half of July’s 104,000 gain.

Leisure and hospitality, along with construction, continued to add jobs, while sectors like manufacturing, education, healthcare, and transportation saw declines. Pay growth held steady: job-stayers earned 4.4% more than a year ago, while job-changers saw gains near 7.1%.

The report reinforces the story of a cooling labour market, mirroring the trends seen in JOLTS, and further strengthens expectations for a Fed rate cut later this month.

ESS

The BLS’s August ESS showed nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, far below July’s upwardly revised gain of 73,000 and the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in July.

These three bits of data, taken together, signals a softening labour market. Investors are now pricing in a better than 90% chance of a Fed rate cut at the September 16–17 meeting, as Fed officials weigh slowing job growth against their ongoing fight against inflation.

Summary

With the JOLTS and ADP Employment Reports serving as appetizers, all eyes were on the BLS’s official jobs report. That’s the one markets watch most closely, since it gives the full picture of unemployment, job gains, and wage growth. The report confirmed the cooling trend we saw in JOLTS and ADP, all but sealing the case for a Fed rate cut later this month.

American Market Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the “fear gauge” for US stocks, opened the week at 16.65 as September’s reputation for volatility spooked investors and concerns over President Trump’s influence on the Fed rattled confidence. Midweek, softer labour data and rising expectations for rate cuts helped calm nerves, and the VIX steadily drifted lower to close the week at 15.18.

For anyone new to the VIX, it’s a handy snapshot of how jittery, or calm, the US market feels. Readings between 12 and 20 indicate relatively calm conditions, while levels above 20 suggest traders are bracing for rougher waters. The higher it climbs, the more uncertainty is being priced into markets.

Weekly Market and Portfolio Review

For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) rose 1.7%, the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 0.3%, the DJIA (INDU) dropped 0.3% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) gained 1.1%.

A graph of different colored lines showing the progress of the 4 indexes throughout the week.

Index Weekly Streak
TSX: 5 – week winning streak
S&P: 1 – week winning streak
DJIA: 2 – week losing streak
Nasdaq: 1 – week winning streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. The shortened week got off to a rocky start, kicking off what’s historically the toughest month for markets. A US Federal Appeals Court ruling against the legality of President Trump’s tariffs stirred fresh uncertainty and weighed on the S&P 500 (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq). North of the border, the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX) marched to its own beat, setting another record high.

The rebound came quickly. The S&P soon notched its own record, while the TSX extended its winning streak to eight straight sessions – its longest run since May, with new highs each day.

American markets had plenty on their plate. Concerns grew over Trump’s push to influence the Fed, raising questions about the central bank’s independence. On the economic front, the JOLTS, ADP, and BLS’s ESS all pointed to softer job growth. Of these, the BLS report carries the most weight since it captures the full picture of unemployment, job gains, and wage growth. August marked the fourth straight month of weak results, another sign the labour market is losing steam. With the BLS report coming in weaker than expected, it all but sealed the case for a Fed rate cut later this month.

On the trade front, negotiations and tariff questions kept global growth in focus, leaving investors wary of potential ripple effects. Trade policy remained a wildcard. If the Appeals Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs is upheld by the Supreme Court, Washington could be forced to return billions collected in tariff revenue while leaving Trump isolated from nearly all of the America’s trading partners.

There were also bright spots this past week. Alphabet’s (NASD: GOOGL) stock price jumped after a favourable court ruling ensured Google wouldn’t be forced to break up its search business. The decision also cleared the way for Google to keep paying Apple (NASD: AAPL) to remain the default search engine in Safari and Siri. The outcome fell well short of investors’ worst fears, sparking a surge in Alphabet’s stock and lifting heavyweight tech shares more broadly.

In Canada, the TSX spent the week setting record after record, now closing at all-time highs in 10 of the last 11 trading sessions, including its eighth straight record-setting day to end the week. The run has been powered by rising gold prices, optimism on trade negotiations, and growing expectations of rate cuts from both the BoC and the Fed. Gold prices climbed, drawing investors toward the safer asset. A shrinking trade deficit added an extra boost, as stronger export demand – especially for commodities – supported Canada’s resource-heavy market. Taken together, these forces gave investors plenty of reasons to keep pushing the TSX higher.

By week’s end, hopes for rate cuts and strength in heavyweight technology companies helped steady the market, even as politics and trade kept investors on edge. At the risk of jinxing September, if this is what a “bad” start looks like, we could be in for a pretty decent month. 😊

Portfolio Weekly Streak
Portfolio 1: 1 – week winning streak
Portfolio 2: 5– week winning streak
Portfolio 3: 4 – week losing streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets.Bearish market With such a mixed backdrop in the markets, it’s no surprise my three portfolios delivered split results this week. Once again, the heavy weighting of Nvidia (NASD: NVDA) in Portfolios 1 and 3 acted as a drag on both portfolios.

Portfolio 1 still managed to climb 0.5%, with 56% of its holdings finishing higher. The standout was Celestica (TSE: CLS), which surged 17% to an all-time high. Alphabet also gave the portfolio a big lift, jumping 11% after US courts cleared the way for Google to avoid a breakup, keep its search dominance intact, and continue profiting from default deals with Apple. The ruling removed a major cloud hanging over the stock, unlocking new momentum and pushing shares to record levels.

Portfolio 2 was the week’s top performer, rising 0.7%. Just over half the holdings gained ground, led by a 10% jump in Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSE: ATD). iA Financial (TSE: IAG) also impressed, hitting a new high and adding to the portfolio’s strength.

Portfolio 3 lagged behind the other two portfolios, slipping 0.4% as only 45% of its companies finished positive. Nvidia’s pullback weighed heavily, though Shopify (TSE: SHOP) helped soften the blow with a strong week of gains.

Overall, two out of three in the green isn’t a bad way to wrap this week up. 😊

Weekly Portfolio & Index performance
Weekly Portfolio & Index performance for the week ended September 9, 2025.

Companies on the Radar

Stocks on my Radar This past week, I started by trimming my radar list to make it more manageable. I removed Fiserv (NYSE: FI), the American fintech company, and Secure Energy Services (TSE: SES), a Canadian environmental and waste management firm serving energy and industrial clients. For Fiserv, I’m already invested in two of the top financial services companies – Visa (NYSE: V) and PayPal (NASD: PYPL) – so I don’t need another one. As for SES, with oil prices dropping, I don’t expect exploration or drilling to pick up in the next year or two. I’d rather put my money into a company in a growing sector, like Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ), the housing company.

With those two gone, my radar list is now back down to five companies.

  • Mainstreet Equity Corp.: a Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings – typically under 100 units – across Western Canada. It buys underperforming properties at below-market prices, renovates them, and increases rental income through improved operations. With strong demand for rental housing, a repeatable value-add strategy, and a solid balance sheet, Mainstreet offers a compelling mix of income and growth. Shares currently trade below net asset value, giving investors a margin of safety alongside steady cash flow and long-term upside.
  • Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET): an American company that designs and sells advanced networking hardware and software, with a focus on high-speed, low-latency switches for its key markets: data centres, AI, cloud computing, and financial trading. The company has been riding the AI tailwind with solid demand from its core markets, especially in AI and cloud data centres. It also has a hefty share buyback program and increasing investments from some of the top institutional investment companies.
  • Palo Alto Networks (NASD: PANW) is an American cybersecurity company, providing firewalls, cloud security, and AI-driven tools to companies around the world. It’s seen as a key play on AI-powered cybersecurity and is also benefitting from rising federal spending in this area. The stock can be volatile, but it’s been riding strong AI and cybersecurity tailwinds.
  • Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): a large cap American company that is a leader in specialty glass, optical fiber, environmental technology, life sciences, and other specialty glasses. They have been the supplier of the glass used in Apple’s iPhones since 2007, and they are riding the tailwind of an AI-driven fiber optic boom.
  • Copart (NASD: CPRT): this American company runs one of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platforms, specializing in salvaging cars from accidents and natural disasters. It sells on behalf of insurers, dealerships, rental companies, and individuals. Copart earns revenue through transaction fees, storage, transportation, and listing services. Its digital model, global buyer network, and asset-light approach support strong margins and steady growth. With no long-term debt and rising tailwinds from vehicle values and insurance claims, it’s a steady growth story that’s earned a spot on my radar.

As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.

The Radar Check was last updated September 5, 2025.

Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.

 

That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!

 

Weekly Update for the week ending August 29, 2025

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Small Caps, Big Potential: How Tiny Stocks Can Supercharge Your Portfolio

Small-cap stocks have been making waves recently, catching the attention of investors looking for the next big opportunity. So, what exactly are small caps? Simply put, they’re companies with smaller market capitalizations – usually between $300 million and $2 billion. These aren’t the heavyweights like Apple (NASD: AAPL) or Microsoft (NASD: MSFT), but they tend to be younger, faster-growing firms such as Indie Semiconductors (NASD: INDI), a maker of chips used in car components, and Kraken Robotics (TSE: PNG), which produces underwater sensors and robotics. Others operate in niche industries, like Pulse Seismic (TSE: PSD), the go-to company for seismic data in Western Canada. After acquiring the top dog in this niche market in 2019, PSD now owns the largest library of licensable 2D and 3D seismic data in the region, making it the top commercial provider for energy companies exploring or developing projects.

Think of it like owning the “map” everyone in the region needs. While other smaller companies exist, PSD’s scale and coverage give it a near-monopoly on the data most energy companies rely on, making it a dominant player in its niche. For investors, that means PSD isn’t just another small-cap company; it’s a company with a highly defensible market position, or strong moat.

The appeal of small caps is clear: they can deliver outsized growth. If a small company’s product or service takes off, the stock has far more room to run compared to a mature giant. That’s why small caps are often seen as engines of innovation and potential wealth builders in a portfolio.

Of course, higher reward comes with higher risk. Small-cap stocks tend to be more volatile, swinging up and down faster than their large-cap counterparts. They don’t trade as frequently as medium, large, or mega-cap companies—mainly because they’re less well known and considered too risky for big institutions until they prove themselves. They’re also more sensitive to changes in interest rates, economic cycles, or even a single disappointing earnings report. For new investors, that kind of turbulence can feel like a roller coaster ride.

One way to approach small caps is with patience and discipline. Instead of jumping in with a big buy, consider starting small: buy a few shares to establish a position, then add more over time as you become more familiar with the company and it proves itself with consistent growth and strong earnings. This way, you’re not just betting on potential – you’re letting the company earn your confidence.

This is exactly what I’ve done with INDI, PNG, and PSD – taking an initial position and letting them prove themselves. PSD has done well, up a total of 95% over the three years I’ve been an owner, helped by regular and special dividends. Kraken is up 36% since I invested in January 2025. On the other hand, INDI has fallen almost 50% in the two years since I became an owner. There are other small caps across my three portfolios, but these three provide a clear example of both the growth potential and the risks of small cap investing.

Small-cap stocks really are like swinging for the fences – thrilling when you connect, but risky when you miss. They can add energy and excitement to a portfolio, but they’re only part of the game. The market story doesn’t end with the little guys; the heavy hitters also step up to the plate and often set the tone for where things head next. With that in mind, let’s see what happened this past week….

Items that may only interest or educate me ….

The Earnings Report That Moved the Markets, Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….

The Earnings Report That Moved the Markets

After starting off talking about small-cap stocks, let’s flip to the other extreme – the world’s largest company. It’s a bit like baseball: after a string of off-speed pitches, here comes the blazing fastball. Gotta keep you on your toes. 😊

This week, Nvidia (NASD: NVDA), the world’s most valuable company with a market cap north of US$4 trillion, released its second-quarter earnings. This wasn’t just another update; it was arguably the most watched event of the week. Why? Because Nvidia makes up about 8% of the S&P 500, so when it moves, millions of accounts and index funds move with it. Put simply: if Nvidia sneezes, millions of investors feel it.

Nvidia sits at the centre of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and investors saw this report as a test of whether the AI rally still has legs. The company has soared to record highs, but trade tensions with China have started to cloud its outlook. In many ways, Nvidia’s earnings have become a barometer for the entire AI story – fueling excitement or cooling the hype.

On paper, Nvidia’s results looked impressive: revenue jumped 56% year over year, and profits beat analyst expectations. Yet data centre sales came in just below forecasts, which spooked investors. Even with strong overall numbers, concerns over data centre growth and uncertainty around the company’s China business overshadowed the earnings beat. Nvidia’s stock slipped 2–3% in after-hours trading before stabilizing on Thursday, but by Friday’s close, shares had fallen 4% following the earnings release. The downdraft also weighed on other AI and chip companies, including AMD (NASD: AMD) and Broadcom (NASD: AVGO). It’s a reminder that when expectations are sky-high, even a small miss can rattle markets.

There was also some headline-grabbing news outside of earnings. Nvidia announced a massive US$60 billion stock buyback, on top of the US$24.3 billion already returned this year through share repurchases and dividends. That’s management’s way of saying they believe in the company’s long-term value.

Bottom line: Nvidia is still delivering explosive growth, but the bar is so high that “good” results aren’t always enough anymore. Add in the uncertainty around selling its H20 chips to China, and the outlook is less straightforward than it looks on the surface. For investors, the takeaway is clear – even the strongest companies can stumble when expectations run ahead of reality.

Canadian Economic news

This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Statistics Canada revealed Canada’s economy stumbled in the second quarter, with GDP slipping 0.4% from the first quarter. Annualized, that works out to a 1.6% contraction — the sharpest pullback in nearly two years. The two numbers can look confusing, but here’s the difference: the quarter-over-quarter figure shows what actually happened, while the annualized rate simply projects that one-quarter trend over a full year.

The main culprit was a steep drop in exports, which plunged nearly 7.5% — their worst slide in five years. US tariffs on key Canadian industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum hit especially hard, with passenger vehicle exports alone down almost 25%. Business investment also softened, particularly in machinery and equipment, which slipped for the first time since the pandemic.

On the brighter side, consumer spending remained strong, climbing 4.5%, while housing activity and government spending also picked up, helping cushion the blow.

On a monthly basis, GDP shrank 0.1% in June, following similar declines in April and May. This marks three consecutive monthly drops, a streak not seen since late 2022. Analysts had been expecting a small gain of 0.1%. Goods-producing industries took the biggest hit, largely due to US tariffs, slipping 0.5%, with manufacturing alone falling 1.5%. Meanwhile, services held steady, rising 0.1%, supported by retail, real estate, wholesale trade, and construction.

Overall, the quarterly and monthly reports highlight how exposed Canada’s economy remains to American trade policy. With exports tumbling and business investment slowing, the odds of a BoC rate cut in September seem higher — especially with inflation continuing to trend lower.

Canadian Market Volatility

Canada’s volatility gauge, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), opened this past week at 9.14 and mostly stayed between 8.5 and 9.5 – until Friday, when it spiked above 10.5 before dropping to close the week at 9.84. The jump likely reflected a combination of shrinking GDP news, higher federal government debt, and turbulence in US markets, which unsettled investors.

Think of the VIXC as a “fear gauge” for the Canadian stock market. When investors feel nervous, often due to uncertainty or sudden news, the index ticks higher. Lower numbers, like where it finished the week, signal calmer sentiment. For anyone new to investing, it’s a useful snapshot of how the market is feeling.

US Economic news

This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August came in at 97.4, down slightly from July’s revised 98.7 but still a touch better than the 96.4 analysts were expecting. In other words, confidence cooled a little, but it’s still moving within the same range we’ve seen for months.

Digging deeper, the Present Situation Index – which captures how people feel about today’s business and job market – slipped to 131.2, pointing to a modest pullback in how consumers perceive their conditions right now. The Expectations Index, which measures how consumers see the next six months, also dipped to 74.8. That’s important because anything below 80 is often viewed as a warning sign, hinting that people are nervous about income, hiring, and business prospects.

The softer numbers aren’t too surprising given the recent slowdown in the labour market, highlighted by the sharp drop in jobs added over the past few months. While consumer confidence hasn’t fallen off a cliff, it’s clearly showing some strain. In fact, confidence is now sitting at its lowest level since early 2021, with mounting concerns about the job market and tariffs weighing on sentiment. For investors, this matters because when consumers feel less confident, they tend to spend less – and weaker spending can ripple through the broader economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter. In its second estimate, GDP rose at an annualized 3.3%, up from July’s 3.0% reading and ahead of analysts’ 3.1% forecast. That’s a solid rebound considering the economy had actually contracted 0.5% earlier in the year.

The gain was primarily driven by a drop in imports. Since imports are treated as a subtraction in the GDP formula, fewer of them gave the numbers a boost. Consumer spending also chipped in, with Americans still spending despite higher borrowing costs.

For investors, the message is clear: the economy remains sturdier than many expected. That gives the Fed room to take its time on interest rate cuts, but it also means they’ll be careful not to let inflation flare back up.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

The BEA’s July PCE report showed that inflation remained steady. The headline PCE, which tracks all items, rose 0.2% month-over-month, down slightly from June’s 0.3% gain. On a year-over-year basis, inflation held at 2.6%, in line with expectations.

Looking at core PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, monthly growth came in at 0.3%, matching June, while annual core inflation ticked up slightly to 2.9%, compared with 2.8% in June.

Even with the slight rise in core inflation, many analysts and investors expect the Fed to move forward with a rate cut in September. For consumers, that could mean cheaper borrowing costs, while for us investors, it could be a potential boost for the markets.

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)

Consumer sentiment in the US declined in August, with the University of Michigan’s CSI falling to 58.2, down from 61.7 in July. That’s a 5.7% drop from the previous month and a 14.3% decline compared to August 2024.

The decline was broad-based, affecting people of all ages, income levels, and stock wealth. The Current Economic Conditions Index, which reflects how people feel about their present situation, including job security and personal finances, fell to 61.7 from 68.0, a drop of 9.3% month over month but an increase of 0.7% from a year ago. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, looking six months ahead, dipped to 55.9 from 57.7, a 3.1% monthly decline and down 22.5% year-over-year, highlighting growing concerns about the economic outlook.

Inflation expectations also edged higher, with consumers expecting a 4.8% increase in prices over the next year, up from 4.5% in July. Long-term expectations rose slightly to 3.5% from 3.4%.

August’s drop in consumer sentiment shows that people are feeling more cautious about the economy. When consumers pull back on spending, it can slow overall economic growth, since spending drives roughly two-thirds of GDP. For investors, that means companies relying heavily on consumer purchases, like retail, travel, and discretionary goods, could face headwinds, while more defensive sectors, such as healthcare and utilities, may hold up better. The slight rise in inflation expectations also keeps the Fed’s rate decision in play. Overall, a dip in confidence doesn’t spell disaster, but it’s a signal to watch how spending trends evolve in the months ahead.

American Market Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the “fear gauge” for US stocks, opened the week at 15.05 and mostly moved between 14.50 and 15.00 before finishing the week at 15.36. Early in the week, optimism from stronger-than-expected GDP growth and Nvidia’s solid earnings kept volatility lower. However, the release of July’s PCE inflation data late in the week added a layer of uncertainty, leaving investors unsure about the Fed’s next moves.

Overall, the week’s VIX movements reflect the market balancing optimism over growth and AI-driven earnings with nervousness about inflation, Fed policy, and geopolitical developments.

For anyone new to the VIX, it’s a handy snapshot of how jittery, or calm, the US market feels. Readings between 12 and 20 indicate relatively calm conditions, while levels above 20 suggest traders are bracing for rougher waters. The higher it climbs, the more uncertainty is being priced into markets.

Weekly Market and Portfolio Review

For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) gained 0.8%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.1%, the DJIA (INDU) and Nasdaq (CCMP) both fell 0.2%.

 
Index Weekly Streak
TSX: 4 – week winning streak
S&P: 1 – week losing streak
DJIA: 1 – week losing streak
Nasdaq: 2 – week losing streak

Bearish marketBull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. Following Fed Chair Powell’s hint at a possible September rate cut the previous week, investors came into this week with high expectations. That optimism cooled over the weekend as investors dialed back their rate-cut hopes and rotated out of high-growth tech into more undervalued sectors. Still, momentum returned as the week went on. On Thursday, it looked like all four major indexes would finish higher, with the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 Index (S&P), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) all setting fresh record highs during the week, and the Nasdaq just shy of its peak. However, that changed drastically on Friday, with all three US indexes falling into the red, as you can see in the weekly progress chart above.

Driving the US markets was a mix of economic data and Nvidia’s headline earnings. The second-quarter GDP revision came in stronger than expected, supported by resilient consumer spending and a drop in imports. That bolstered confidence that the economy remains on solid footing. On the downside, July’s PCE inflation data showed the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation edging slightly higher, while August consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level in over a year. Together, the reports reminded investors that inflation remains sticky, and households are growing more cautious.

Earnings-wise, Nvidia stole the spotlight. As the poster child of the AI boom, its second-quarter results were viewed as a key test of whether enthusiasm for AI stocks could endure. The company beat on both revenue and profit, driven by booming demand for AI infrastructure. Still, concerns about slower data-centre growth and uncertainty in China briefly rattled investors, pushing the stock lower in after-hours trading before shares quickly stabilized on the overall strength of the report.

Trade tensions also resurfaced. President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian products in response to its purchases of Russian oil and threatened the European Union over new rules regulating online platforms, arguing they unfairly target American tech giants like Apple and Google (NASD: GOOGL).

On a more unusual note, Trump attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the first time a president has ever tried to remove a sitting Fed governor. Surprisingly, markets barely reacted. Although the move sparked questions about the Fed’s independence – and could pave the way for lower rates if Trump succeeds – investors kept their attention on inflation, jobs data, and corporate earnings.

In Canada, the TSX finished the week higher, including setting a new high to end the week, standing out as the only major North American index to post a gain. Earnings from the country’s big six banks lifted sentiment, with most reporting results above expectations, helped by smaller-than-expected loan loss provisions. Their results reassured investors that the financial sector is still healthy despite broader headwinds. Meanwhile, Canada’s second-quarter GDP fell 0.4%, its sharpest drop in nearly two years, weighed down by US tariffs that curbed exports to Canada’s largest trading partner. The contraction reinforced concerns about slowing growth and strengthened the case for a potential BoC rate cut in September.

Overall, last week showed a mix of resilience and caution across North American markets. While Canadian equities managed to edge higher, US indexes slipped by week’s end despite strong earnings and solid economic data earlier in the week. The divergence highlights how markets are being pulled in different directions by domestic fundamentals, policy uncertainty, and global risks.

Portfolio Weekly Streak
Portfolio 1: 2 – week losing streak
Portfolio 2: 4 – week winning streak
Portfolio 3: 3 – week losing streak

Bearish marketBull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. Even though the indexes kept pushing higher through Thursday, many even setting new records, I was a bit surprised to see that my three portfolios weren’t all basking in the green. Portfolio 2 was clearly riding the wave, but Portfolios 1 and 3 were hovering right around the flatline, leaving little margin for error heading into Friday. When I woke up and saw the American indexes dipping into the red, I had a feeling those two portfolios were destined to finish lower. And sure enough, that’s exactly how the week wrapped up, as you can see in the weekly performance chart below. ☹

Portfolio 1 dropped 0.6%, mainly due to Nvidia’s 4% slide—no small impact given the stock makes up nearly 25% of the portfolio. Thankfully, 56% of holdings finished higher, with Google and Cameco (TSE: CCO) both setting record highs to help soften the hit. A welcome surprise came when Interactive Brokers (NASD: IBKR) was added to the S&P, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASD: WBA), which was taken private. The announcement sent IBKR’s stock up 5% in after-hours trading, further offsetting Nvidia’s pullback.

Portfolio 2 was the star of the week, surging 4.8% despite just 51% of its holdings closing higher. The heavy lifting came almost entirely from MongoDB (NASD: MDB), which skyrocketed 44% after reporting a 24% year-over-year jump in second-quarter revenue. One stock carrying the entire team – sometimes that’s all it takes. 😊

Portfolio 3 had the toughest stretch, dropping a full 1% and posting the lowest percentage of winners (45%) among its holdings. With its two biggest positions pulling back, the outcome wasn’t surprising. Still, there was a silver lining: Royal Bank of Canada (TSE: RY) hit an all-time high after beating earnings expectations, showing that even in a down week, there are bright spots worth celebrating.

All told, it was a choppy week across my three portfolios, much like the broader markets where heavyweight Nvidia took some wind out of the sails. But with companies like Interactive Brokers, MongoDB, and Royal Bank of Canada delivering solid results, it’s a good reminder that even in down weeks, strong businesses keep finding ways to move forward — and that’s what keeps me optimistic.

Weekly Portfolio & Index performance
Weekly Portfolio & Index performance for the week ended August 29, 2025.

Companies on the Radar

Stocks on my Radar This past week, two more companies popped up on my radar – Palo Alto Networks (NASD: PANW) and Fiserv (NYSE: FI). Both are big US companies in the technology space, though they operate in very different corners of it.

Palo Alto Networks is a cybersecurity powerhouse, offering firewalls, cloud security, and AI-driven tools to more than 70,000 organizations worldwide. It’s seen as a key play on AI-powered cybersecurity and is also benefitting from rising federal spending in this area. The stock can be volatile, but it’s been riding strong AI and cybersecurity tailwinds.

Fiserv, on the other hand, sits in the financial technology world. It provides the behind-the-scenes tech that banks, merchants, and financial institutions rely on, and it’s expanding its reach internationally. The stock has been under pressure, down about 40% since March 3, which could make it look like a potential “buy low” opportunity for long-term investors.

With these two additions, my radar list now sits at seven companies, including the five holdovers from last week. It’s starting to get a little crowded, so I’ll likely be trimming things down for next week’s update.

  • Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): a Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings – typically under 100 units – across Western Canada. It buys underperforming properties at below-market prices, renovates them, and increases rental income through improved operations. With strong demand for rental housing, a repeatable value-add strategy, and a solid balance sheet, Mainstreet offers a compelling mix of income and growth. Shares currently trade below net asset value, giving investors a margin of safety alongside steady cash flow and long-term upside.
  • Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET): an American company that designs and sells advanced networking hardware and software, with a focus on high-speed, low-latency switches for its key markets: data centres, AI, cloud computing, and financial trading. The company has been riding the AI tailwind with solid demand from its core markets, especially in AI and cloud data centres. It also has a hefty share buyback program and increasing investments from some of the top institutional investment companies.
  • Secure Energy Services (TSE: SES): a Canadian industrial company that focuses on environmental and waste management services for energy and industrial clients. It offers recycling, disposal, and infrastructure support across North America.
  • Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): a large cap American company that is a leader in specialty glass, optical fiber, environmental technology, life sciences, and other specialty glasses. They have been the supplier of the glass used in Apple’s iPhones since 2007, and they are riding the tailwind of an AI-driven fiber optic boom.
  • Copart (NASD: CPRT): this American company runs one of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platforms, specializing in salvaging cars from accidents and natural disasters. It sells on behalf of insurers, dealerships, rental companies, and individuals. Copart earns revenue through transaction fees, storage, transportation, and listing services. Its digital model, global buyer network, and asset-light approach support strong margins and steady growth. With no long-term debt and rising tailwinds from vehicle values and insurance claims, it’s a steady growth story that’s earned a spot on my radar.

As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.

The Radar Check was last updated August 29, 2025.

Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2..
Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2..
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.

 

That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!

 

Weekly Update for the week ending August 22, 2025

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Bigger Slices of the Pie: Understanding Share Buybacks

While going through the latest batch of quarterly reports, I noticed quite a few companies announcing share buyback programs. If you’re new to investing, that might not sound like much, but buybacks can actually be a very shareholder-friendly move. So this week, let’s talk about what they are and how they can benefit us as investors.

A share buyback happens when a company uses its own money to repurchase some of its stock from the market. Those shares are then cancelled or tucked away in the company’s treasury, leaving fewer shares available for the public to own.

Think of it like a pizza. If you and three friends split one pie, each of you gets a quarter. But if one person leaves and the pizza stays the same size, your slice automatically gets bigger. Owning stock works the same way: when there are fewer shares, each share you own represents a larger slice of the company.

How buybacks benefit shareholders

  1. Earnings boost – With fewer shares in circulation, the company’s profits are spread across a smaller pool, often lifting earnings per share (EPS) and supporting the stock price.
  2. Price support – A company buying its own stock signals confidence in its future, and the added demand can help keep prices stable – or push them higher.
  3. Tax efficiency – Unlike dividends, which are taxed when you receive them, you only pay taxes on buybacks when you eventually sell your shares.
  4. A show of confidence – Management is essentially saying, “We think our stock is worth more than the market gives it credit for.”

Of course, not all buybacks are created equal. If a company overpays for its shares or borrows heavily to fund them, it can look good in the short term but hurt long-term value. Done wisely, though, buybacks can be a powerful way to return cash to investors without cutting into growth plans.

Good vs. Bad Buybacks: A Quick Checklist

  • Financial health: Strong cash flow and low debt ✅ vs. borrowing to fund buybacks ❌
  • Share price: Buying when the stock looks undervalued ✅ vs. chasing record highs ❌
  • Impact: Reducing the share count meaningfully ✅ vs. buybacks so small they barely matter ❌
  • Motives: Disciplined capital allocation ✅ vs. short-term EPS padding ❌
  • Priorities: Growth and dividends already funded ✅ vs. cutting corners elsewhere ❌
  • Net effect: Share count actually shrinks ✅ vs. just offsetting stock options ❌

Here’s the simple test: if buybacks are funded by healthy profits, reduce the share count, and come after other priorities are taken care of, they’re usually a good sign for shareholders.

The next time you’re skimming through earnings reports (you do read them, right? 😊), take a look at whether the company is planning to buy back shares. You can also check sites like Yahoo! Finance or Fiscal.ai to see if the number of outstanding shares is shrinking (a good sign) or growing (not so good).

Now that you’ve got a clearer picture of how buybacks work and why they matter, let’s shift gears and see how the markets performed this past week – and what drove the moves.

Items that may only interest or educate me ….

What’s the Deal with Jackson Hole?, Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, …

What’s the Deal with Jackson Hole?

Every summer, central bankers, finance ministers, and top economists from around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for one of the most closely watched economic events of the year: the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the conference has been running since 1978 and has become famous for shaping global market expectations.

The setting may be rustic, surrounded by mountains and wildlife, but the ideas discussed here often ripple through the financial world. Over the years, major policy shifts have been signalled at Jackson Hole, making it a must-watch for anyone trying to understand where interest rates and economic policy might be headed next.

This year, the spotlight was squarely on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His speech is always the headline moment, and 2025 was no exception. Powell noted that inflation has eased closer to the Fed’s 2% target, giving the central bank some flexibility. He signalled that the Fed is prepared to cut rates soon if the progress holds, though he balanced it with caution about moving too quickly. Markets responded positively, sending the markets soaring, as investors interpreted his comments as confirmation that lower rates are just around the corner.

For us investors, Jackson Hole isn’t just a high-level gathering in the Wyoming mountains – it’s a reminder that a few carefully chosen words from central bankers can move trillions of dollars.

Canadian Economic news

This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Statistic Canada’s latest inflation report showed prices easing a bit more in July. Annual CPI came in at 1.7%, down from 1.9% in June and right in line with expectations. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3%, also matching forecasts.

The biggest driver of the drop was gasoline, which fell a steep 16.1% over the past year, helped by the removal of the consumer carbon tax, while food prices climbed 3.3% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, the food component also saw the biggest increase, rising 0.6% while clothing and footwear prices fell 1.9%.

Shelter costs – one of the most important parts of the CPI basket since it makes up nearly 30% – inched back up to 3.0% after dipping the previous month. Rising rents (+5.1%) and a slower decline in natural gas costs were the main culprits. Because shelter includes rent and mortgage interest, it has a heavy influence on overall inflation.

Core inflation, which strips out more volatile items like food and gas to give a clearer picture of underlying trends, rose 0.3% in July. That was higher than expected, but the annual pace cooled slightly to 2.5% from 2.6% in June. Even so, that’s still above the BoC’s 2% target.

Big picture: overall inflation is easing, mostly thanks to cheaper gas, and that’s fueling hopes the BoC could cut rates at its September 17 meeting. But with food and shelter costs still running hot, and core inflation proving sticky, the central bank may want to see more evidence before making a move.

Retail Sales

According to Statistics Canada, retail sales bounced back strongly in June, climbing 1.5% as expected and reversing May’s downward revised 1.2% decline. Compared to last year, sales were up 6.6%, showing that consumers are still willing to spend despite economic headwinds.

On the monthly side, convenience retailers and vending machine operators led the way with a 5.3% jump in sales, while furniture, electronics, and appliance stores were essentially flat. Looking at the yearly picture, used car dealers once again topped the leaderboard with a 19.3% surge, while gasoline stations remained the biggest drag, down 5.5%.

Core retail sales – which exclude the more volatile auto and gas categories – were particularly strong, rising 1.9% in June versus analyst expectations of 1.1%. Year over year, they were up 6.8%, an acceleration from May’s 5.3% pace.

All in all, Canadians showed resilience at the checkout, especially in everyday essentials like food and general goods. But it’s not all smooth sailing, Statistics Canada’s early estimate for July points to a 0.8% pullback in retail activity, though that figure is still preliminary and could be revised.

Canadian Market Volatility

Canada’s volatility gauge, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), started the week at 10.59 and held steady in a tight band between 10.5 and 10.0. It wasn’t until Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the global central bankers’ meeting, which was well received by investors, that the index broke lower, finishing the week at 9.14.

Think of the VIXC as a “fear gauge” for the Canadian stock market. When investors feel nervous, often due to uncertainty or sudden news, the index ticks higher. Lower numbers, like where it finished the week, signal calmer sentiment. For anyone new to investing, it’s a useful snapshot of how the market is feeling.

US Economic news

This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

The Fed released minutes this past week from its July 29–30 meeting of the FOMC, giving us a window into how officials are weighing interest rates and the economy. Policymakers voted to keep rates steady at 4.5%, but the minutes revealed that two of the eleven voting members (with one absent) leaned toward cutting sooner rather than later. That hint of division is significant – it’s the first time since 1993 that more than one member has dissented in the same meeting, and it underscores just how divided the committee is on how long rates should stay elevated.

The debate extended beyond rates. Officials wrestled with the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on inflation. Some felt any price increases would be short-lived, while others worried tariffs could fuel more persistent inflation.

The labour market was another dividing line. A few members pointed to continued strength in hiring, but others flagged slower wage growth and signs of cooling demand for workers. That left many participants viewing inflation risks as the bigger concern, though some still saw weakening employment as the greater threat.

For now, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at 4.5% means borrowing costs for mortgages, loans, and credit cards remain where they are. For us investors, the chances of a September rate cut are still high but dipped slightly after the minutes, slipping from about 85% to 83%. Now, attention shifts to Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where markets are looking for clearer signals on what comes next.

American Market Volatility

Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – opened the week at 15.73 and inched higher as investors waited for Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech, which could be his last as head of the Fed. The uncertainty over whether he’d hint at rate cuts or reinforce his inflation-fighting stance nudged market nerves up a notch. However, following favourable comments by Powell, the VIX ended the week at 14.22.

For anyone new to the VIX, think of it as a real-time pulse check on investor anxiety. It tends to jump when markets get rattled – whether by geopolitical flare-ups, inflation surprises, or unexpected shifts in Fed leadership. When fear rises, so does the VIX.

Generally, a reading between 12 and 20 signals calm conditions. Once it breaks above 20, traders start bracing for rougher waters. The higher it climbs, the more uncertainty is being priced into markets.

Weekly Market and Portfolio Review

For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) jumped 1.5%, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.3%, the DJIA (INDU) surged 1.5% while the Nasdaq (CCMP) slipped 0.6%.

 
Index Weekly Streak
TSX: 3 – week winning streak
S&P: 3 – week winning streak
DJIA: 3 – week winning streak
Nasdaq: 1 – week losing streak

Bull market. A good week for the North American stock markets. Heading into Friday, the US indexes looked like they might end the week in the red, with the exception of Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), which held steady. Then Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his speech at Jackson Hole, and sentiment flipped, as shown in the weekly progress chart above. His dovish tone sparked a strong relief rally: the S&P 500 Index (S&P) snapped a five-day losing streak, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged more than 900 points in a single day to set a record high close, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) recovered most of its earlier losses.

The Fed stole the spotlight all week. Early on, markets were rattled when President Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation over fraud allegations, sparking concerns about Fed independence if another loyalist were appointed, should she resign. Midweek, the July FOMC minutes showed nine of eleven members favoured holding rates steady at 4.25–4.50%. But all eyes were really on Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, which could be his last as Fed Chair. The question hanging over markets was whether he’d stick to a cautious stance or finally hint at cuts. On Friday, Powell delivered – acknowledging a cooling labour market while warning that tariffs could keep inflation sticky. Investors took his comments as a green light for September rate cuts, sending markets higher to close out the week.

Geopolitical developments also played a role. A White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskiy and European leaders raised hopes for eventual security guarantees to Ukraine, though little concrete progress emerged. Meanwhile, technology stocks struggled for much of the week amid warnings of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble from Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI (the company behind ChatGPT), combined with an MIT report showing 95% of corporate AI pilot projects failing to deliver returns. Concerns over lofty valuations and increasing government scrutiny added pressure on the sector, even as the broader market recovered late in the week.

In Canada, investors began the week cautiously, keeping an eye on July inflation data, trade developments, and the central bankers’ symposium at Jackson Hole. The inflation report offered a welcome boost, with prices falling more than expected. That eased cost-of-living concerns and opened the door for potential BoC rate cuts, helping the TSX notch back-to-back record highs. On Thursday, it closed above 28,000 for the first time, then followed up with another record on Friday to cap a strong finish to the week.

Trade developments also lifted sentiment. Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump reportedly had a productive discussion on trade and broader economic cooperation. Canada then announced it would drop retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of US goods starting September 1. This move aligns with USMCA rules and strengthens bilateral trade momentum, easing long-standing US concerns.

The week ended on a high note with Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, which boosted investor optimism. With US monetary policy signaling possible rate cuts, Canadian markets were pulled along, capping what turned out to be a strong week for both sides of the border.

Portfolio Weekly Streak
Portfolio 1: 1 – week losing streak
Portfolio 2: 3 – week winning streak
Portfolio 3: 2 – week losing streak

Bearish marketBull market. A good week for the North American stock markets.While Fed Chair Powell’s speech gave markets a late-week lift, the timing wasn’t enough to rescue two of the three portfolios. Even though more than 60% of holdings in each portfolio finished higher, the pullback in technology weighed heavily. The broader rotation out of high-growth tech made gains harder to come by, leaving all three portfolios grinding through ups and downs. The silver lining? On a percentage basis, Portfolio 2’s advance was bigger than the combined losses of the other two, as you can see in the weekly performance chart below. A small win, but I’ll take it. 😊

Portfolio 1 had the toughest stretch, falling 0.5% despite 62% of its companies finishing higher. The drag came from its heavyweight tech names, especially Nvidia (NASD: NVDA), the portfolio’s largest holding.

Portfolio 2 was the lone bright spot, ending the week in the green, edging up 1.1%. More than 74% of its holdings gained ground, though weakness in tech kept the results from being even better. A highlight came from pipeline operator TC Energy (TSE: TRP), which hit an all-time high.

Portfolio 3 slipped 0.2% even though 68% of its stocks moved higher. Steep pullbacks in its two giants, Nvidia and Shopify (NASD: SHOP), were too much to overcome. Together, those two make up over half the portfolio’s value. As they go, so goes the portfolio – and this week, they went down. 😊

The good news is that the overall backdrop looks positive, with markets shaking off interest rate worries and investors finding reasons to stay optimistic. A week like this – drifting lower before rebounding to finish strong – is a good reminder that short-term swings are part of the ride, but the long-term story for these portfolios is still intact. Onward and upward!

Weekly Portfolio & Index performance
Weekly Portfolio & Index performance for the week ended August 22, 2025.

Companies on the Radar

Stocks on my Radar This week, a company that had previously caught my eye returned to my radar after delivering a strong second-quarter performance: Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET). Based in the US, Arista designs and sells advanced networking hardware and software, with a focus on high-speed, low-latency switches for its key markets: data centres, AI, cloud computing, and financial trading.

What really stood out this quarter was solid demand from its core markets, especially in AI and cloud data centres, paired with a hefty share buyback program. On top of that, top institutional investors are increasing their stakes, which signals confidence in the company’s cash position and long-term prospects.

With this addition, Arista now joins the four other companies currently on my radar list:

  • Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): a Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings – typically under 100 units – across Western Canada. It buys underperforming properties at below-market prices, renovates them, and increases rental income through improved operations. With strong demand for rental housing, a repeatable value-add strategy, and a solid balance sheet, Mainstreet offers a compelling mix of income and growth. Shares currently trade below net asset value, giving investors a margin of safety alongside steady cash flow and long-term upside.
  • Secure Energy Services (TSE: SES): a Canadian industrial company that focuses on environmental and waste management services for energy and industrial clients. It offers recycling, disposal, and infrastructure support across North America.
  • Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): a large cap American company that is a leader in specialty glass, optical fiber, environmental technology, life sciences, and other specialty glasses. They have been the supplier of the glass used in Apples iPhones since 2007, and they are riding the tailwind of an AI-driven fiber optic boom.
  • Copart (NASD: CPRT): this American company runs one of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platforms, specializing in salvage cars from accidents and natural disasters. It sells on behalf of insurers, dealerships, rental companies, and individuals. Copart earns revenue through transaction fees, storage, transportation, and listing services. Its digital model, global buyer network, and asset-light approach support strong margins and steady growth. With no long-term debt and rising tailwinds from vehicle values and insurance claims, it’s a steady growth story that’s earned a spot on my radar.

As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.

The Radar Check was last updated August 22, 2025.

Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 1 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.
Stock on the Radar List. 2 of 2.

 

That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!