Hawk or Dove? The Fed’s Next Chapter
Jerome Powell’s era at the Federal Reserve has come to an end, and Kevin Warsh now takes over one of the most powerful positions in global finance. With inflation, interest rates, and economic growth all hanging in the balance, investors are now asking the big question: will the Fed’s next chapter be led by a hawk or a dove?
While March ended as one of the toughest months in years, April delivered a strong rebound. All four major indexes recovered sharply, erasing losses and posting one of their best monthly performances since the pandemic rebound in 2020.
When I got back into investing, one of the most common terms I heard was valuation. I knew what value was – one always wants to get good value for their money, or not overpay for an item. But the term “valuation” seemed a bit different, although I could never quite put my finger on why it felt separate from simply “getting good value for your money.” The difference, I eventually realized, is that in investing, price and value don’t always move together – and that gap between the two is where a lot of opportunity (and risk) tends to show up. This week, I’ll break down what valuation actually means and why it matters when you’re trying to get good value for your money in the stock market.
If February was driven by fears around artificial intelligence (AI) spending and disruption, March marked a sharp shift to geopolitics – and the ripple effects that followed. The month started on a positive note but quickly turned lower after the US/Israel strikes on Iran, a development that changed the tone almost overnight.
If you’ve felt the sting at the gas pump lately, you’re not alone. Since the US/Israel–Iran conflict began, oil prices have shot up and continue to climb. Brent crude oil is over 50% higher, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) nearly 70%. But the impact goes beyond filling up your vehicle, pushing up transportation costs and, in turn, the price of goods on store shelves – in other words, inflation. In this week’s update, let’s look at the differences between Brent and WTI oil (what are they anyway?), where does Canadian oil fit in, and why are these rising prices rippling through the economy.
Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.