Happy New Year and a Bullish 2025!
Many professional investors took a break for the Christmas holidays, leading to light trading in the Canadian and American markets. I also stepped back from closely tracking daily market moves, but one thing stood out—the absence of a Santa Claus rally this year. As a result, three of the four major indexes, with only the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) spared, and all three of my portfolios posted losses for December, though they still managed gains for the year overall.
With December, and 2024, officially behind us, this ‘Weekly Update’ offers a quick visual snapshot of how the indexes and my portfolios fared over the past two weeks, and for December as a whole. I’ve kept this week’s update brief, letting the charts do most of the talking. After all, they say a picture is worth a thousand words, so with four charts, consider this a four-thousand-word recap! 😊
Without further ado ….
Weekly Market and Portfolio Review
Over the last two weeks, the TSX (SPTSX) advanced 1.9%, the S&P (SPX) edged upward 0.2%, the DJIA (INDU) lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) gained 0.3%.
Streaks as of January 3, 2025
| Index | Weekly Streak | Portfolio | Weekly Streak |
| TSX: | 2 – week winning streak | Portfolio 1: | 1 – week winning streak |
| S&P: | 1 – week losing streak | Portfolio 2: | 1 – week winning streak |
| DJIA: | 1 – week losing streak | Portfolio 3: | 1 – week winning streak |
| Nasdaq: | 1 – week losing streak |
The first week of the Christmas break brought a glimmer of hope as the markets enjoyed the start of a Santa Claus rally. In the second week, the Grinch swooped in, threatening to snatch back those hard-earned gains. But a rally at the start of the new year saved the day, ensuring all three portfolios kicked off the new year with a weekly win. 😊 Here’s hoping it’s a sign of good things to come as we work toward growing the value of our investments in 2025. 😊
Monthly Market and Portfolio Review
For the month, the TSX (SPTSX) lost 3.4%, the S&P 500 (SPX) dropped 2.5%, the DJIA (INDU) plunged 5.3%, while the Nasdaq (CCMP) rose 0.5%.
After a stellar November, I was hopeful the momentum would carry into December—and at first, it seemed promising. All four indexes started the month strong, as shown in the monthly progress chart above. However, the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 Index (S&P), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), soon lost steam. The turning point came with the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of only two expected interest rate cuts in 2025. For many, this signaled rates could stay higher for longer, raising borrowing costs and triggering sharp declines across the indexes.
In Canada, the TSX faced additional pressure from political uncertainty following Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s unexpected resignation, leaving investors uneasy about the potential impact on economic policies and market stability.
A brief Santa Claus rally offered some hope, lifting markets slightly before a final year-end pullback. Ultimately, the Nasdaq was the only index to finish December in the green, while the others closed out the month in the red.
Hopefully, this pullback is nothing more than the professional money managers cleaning up their portfolios to look good at the end of the year. Once the pros are back in January and trading volume picks up again, the markets will pick up and the indexes will resume their relentless march upward.
Turning to the portfolios, all three struggled to sustain November’s momentum, ending December with declines. Given that three of the four indexes also lost ground, this wasn’t entirely unexpected. However, the biggest surprise came from Portfolio 2, which, as the most balanced and typically least volatile, posted the largest drop of the three.
Ending the year on a brighter note, all three portfolios posted solid quarterly gains, with Portfolios 1 and 3 delivering standout performances, achieving double-digit growth, and easily outperforming the indexes. For the year as a whole, all three portfolios increased in value, with Portfolio 1 more than doubling the return of the top-performing index, the Nasdaq, and Portfolio 3 surpassing every index except the Nasdaq. All in all, it’s been a great year! 😊 Here’s to more wins in 2025—wishing you all the best for the new year!
All the best in 2025!