Tariff Scorecard: Keeping Score in the Latest Wave of Tariffs
Tariffs are once again front and centre in investors’ minds. Since returning to office, President Trump has hit several major trading partners with new levies and rolled out a wave of new threats. The list is growing fast, with entire countries and key sectors in the crosshairs, making it tough to keep track of what’s actually in effect and what’s still just a warning shot.
So, here’s a quick recap.
Completed Trade Deals
Let’s start with the countries that struck deals – where threatened tariffs were avoided or reduced in exchange for concessions:
| Country | Final US Tariff After Deal | What the US Gave in Return | Date Signed |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | Autos, steel, aluminum (10% instead of 25%) | Access for UK goods (beef, ethanol, aerospace), reduced duties | May 8, 2025 |
| Vietnam | 20% tariff (cut from 46% threat) | Zero tariffs on US imports; anti-transshipment clause | July 2, 2025 |
| China | Rollback of recent duties | China to ease retaliatory tariffs; export rare earths | Mid-June 2025 |
| Indonesia | 19% tariff (down from 32% threat) | US tariffs removed; Indonesia to buy US energy, planes, and agricultural goods | July 15, 2025 |
Major Tariff Threats Still in Play
In early July, Trump launched a sweeping tariff campaign, threatening steep new duties unless deals are reached by August 1.
Canada and Mexico were hit with proposed tariffs of 30–35%, part of a push for what the administration calls “reciprocal” trade. The European Union (EU) faces similar 30% threats, while China is staring down average tariffs of 40–55%, especially focused on autos and electronics. Brazil was slapped with a 50% threat, tied to political tensions over the prosecution of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro. Trump also announced a 100% tariff on all Russian goods, contingent on a peace deal in Ukraine – and warned that any country doing business with Russia, including China and India, could face secondary penalties. Even the BRICS bloc is under pressure, with a 10% surcharge floated in response to moves that could weaken the US dollar’s global role.
| Country / Region | Tariff Threat | Triggered By | Date Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 35% on non-USMCA goods | Part of “reciprocal” trade campaign | July 7, 2025 |
| Mexico | 30% on all goods | Border/security concerns | July 12, 2025 |
| EU | 30% on all goods | Response to trade imbalances | July 12, 2025 |
| China | 40–55% average | Targeting BRICS, autos, electronics | Early July 2025 |
| Brazil | 50% on all goods | Retaliation over Bolsonaro prosecution | July 9, 2025 |
| Russia | 100% on all exports | Linked to Ukraine peace ultimatum | July 14, 2025 |
| BRICS bloc | +10% surcharge | Currency concerns threatening USD dominance | Early July 2025 |
Sector Tariffs: Applied & Threatened
In addition to country-specific measures, Trump has also rolled out or floated tariffs on entire sectors. He argues these will strengthen domestic production and secure critical supply chains. So far, only two have been formally implemented – but more are clearly in the administration’s sights.
| Sector | Tariff Rate | Status & Details | Date Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steel & Aluminum | 50% | Already implemented globally; includes downstream goods like appliances | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Automobiles & Auto Parts | 25% | In effect on most imports; some exemptions under USMCA | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Copper | 50% (threatened) | Pending outcome of investigation into supply chain resilience | Late June–July 2025 |
| Pharmaceuticals | Up to 200% (threatened) | Under investigation; potential for very high tariffs by month-end | July 8 & ongoing |
| Semiconductors & Equipment | 25%+ (threatened) | Probe underway; tariffs flagged for late summer | Feb 18 & ongoing |
While the threats keep coming, markets haven’t been reacting the way they did during Trump’s first tariff push. After sweeping announcements in early July, stocks barely flinched. Investors seem to have adapted to the familiar Trump playbook: threaten massive tariffs, create urgency, and then walk them back if a deal is reached.
Now that we’ve covered the tariff drama, let’s take a look at what else moved the markets this past week – from inflation data on both sides of the border to portfolio performance and the stocks that caught my eye.
Items that may only interest or educate me ….
Nvidia Surges, Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….
Nvidia Surges
This week, the Trump administration gave Nvidia (NASD: NVDA) the green light to resume sales of its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China. These chips had been blocked under export rules introduced by the Biden administration, which led to over US$4.5 billion in inventory write-downs and an estimated $2.5 billion in lost sales. Reopening access to China – one of Nvidia’s most important markets – is a big win for the company.
China accounts for around $17 billion of Nvidia’s annual sales, and analysts estimate that renewed access could add $10–15 billion in topline revenue over the next couple of years. That could translate into an extra $0.25 to $0.50 per share in earnings by fiscal 2026. The market didn’t wait long to react – Nvidia’s stock jumped on the news, pushing it back toward record highs.
The rebound adds to Nvidia’s already massive momentum. The company recently became the first public firm to hit a $4 trillion market cap, thanks to its dominant position in AI chips. With Microsoft (NASD: MSFT), Amazon (NASD: AMZN), and Alphabet (NASD: GOOGL) all ramping up their AI infrastructure, Nvidia remains at the centre of it all – and there’s growing talk it could become the first $5 trillion company.
In a Nutshell
Nvidia’s rally isn’t just another tech-stock bounce – it’s the result of a major policy shift combined with surging global demand for AI. Regaining access to the Chinese market means recovering billions, boosting future earnings, and reinforcing confidence in AI’s long-term growth. Unless something unexpected shakes up geopolitics or AI budgets, this rally feels more strategic than speculative.
Canadian Economic news
This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Canada’s latest inflation report from Statistics Canada came in mostly as expected. In June, prices rose 1.9% year-over-year, a slight uptick from 1.7% in May, and exactly what economists were predicting. On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to just 0.1%, after jumping 0.6% the month before.
Over the past year, the biggest price increases came from food and shelter, both up 2.9%, while gasoline prices dropped the most, falling 13.4%. Looking at just June, transportation costs rose 0.5% – the main driver of the month’s overall gain – while gas prices edged down again, falling 0.7%.
A key highlight in this report is that shelter costs dropped below 3% for the first time in over four years, settling at 2.9% year-over-year. Shelter is a big deal in inflation reports because it makes up nearly 30% of the CPI basket of costs measured and includes things like rent and mortgage interest. While it’s encouraging to see this easing, mortgage costs and rents are still rising, just at a slower pace.
Core inflation, which leaves out more volatile items like food and gas to give a better sense of underlying price trends, rose just 0.1% in June, down from 0.6% in May. On a yearly basis, it’s holding steady at 2.6%, still above the BoC’s 2% target.
For us investors this means headline inflation remains low, but underlying inflation is still stubbornly high and is not cooling fast enough to convince the BoC to cut rates anytime soon. With core prices staying sticky and job growth still strong, markets now see a rate cut more likely later this summer – if not early fall.
Canadian Market Volatility
Canada’s volatility barometer, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), opened the week at 7.96, shrugging off President Trump’s threat of 35% tariffs. It stayed rangebound between 8.0 and 9.0 for most of the week, with a brief jump above 10 when speculation swirled that Trump might fire the Fed Chair for not cutting interest rates. After that brushfire was put out, the VIXC eased back below 9 – only to pop up again, closing at 9.36 on news Trump was considering steeper tariffs on the European Union.
In a bit of foreshadowing, if American rumours can rattle the Canadian market, you can bet they’ll rattle the US markets even more.
If you’re new to the VIXC, think of it as Canada’s version of a fear gauge. A reading below 10 suggests investors are feeling calm. Between 10 and 20 signals a steady, business-as-usual market. But once it climbs above 20, that’s when nerves start to show and volatility picks up.
US Economic news
This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The latest US inflation report came in right on target. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, up from 0.1% in May. That pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.7%, a modest rise from 2.4% the month before, with both readings landing in line with analyst expectations.
Taking a closer look, fuel oil—used for home heating—posted the biggest monthly gain, up 1.0%, while used car and truck prices fell 0.7%. Over the past year, natural gas delivered to homes surged 14.2%, the largest increase among all components. At the same time, gasoline prices dropped 8.3%, offering some relief at the pump.
Shelter costs, the largest part of the CPI basket, continue to drive overall inflation. Rents and homeowner-related expenses rose another 0.2% in June, pushing the annual increase to 3.8%. That steady climb remains a key factor keeping inflation elevated.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, ticked up 0.2% in June, slightly below expectations, but still up from 0.1% in May. The annual rate rose to 3.0%, from 2.8% a month earlier. While it’s not a dramatic jump, it shows that underlying price pressures are still sticking around.
Analysts also pointed out that prices for many imported goods are starting to rise – a sign that President Trump’s new trade tariffs are beginning to make their way into consumer prices. Categories like furniture, appliances, and clothing, products typically manufactured abroad, are seeing steady increases. While the overall impact on inflation remains limited for now, the pressure is clearly building.
With headline inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target and core inflation hovering near 3%, most investors don’t expect a rate cut before September. The Fed appears to be staying in “wait-and-see” mode as it monitors how tariffs and other pressures play out over the coming months.
Retail Sales
The latest retail sales report from the US Census Bureau showed that consumer spending bounced back in June, with sales rising 0.6% after a 0.9% drop in May. That easily beat expectations of a 0.1% gain. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales climbed 3.9%, up from 3.3% the month before.
A good chunk of that rebound likely reflects higher prices from newly imposed tariffs – especially on goods that are typically imported like furniture, appliances, toys, and sporting goods – rather than a surge in demand. Still, consumers seemed more willing to spend on everyday items too, with categories like clothing and restaurants posting solid monthly gains. The biggest month-over-month jump came from motor vehicle and parts dealers, up 1.2%, while furniture and electronics retailers both saw slight declines of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, health and personal care spending led the way with an 8.3% increase, while gasoline stations posted the steepest drop, down 4.4%.
Core retail sales, which strip out autos, parts, and gas, also rose 0.6% in June, a notable pickup from May’s revised 0.2% gain. Compared to last year, core sales were up 4.1%, slightly softer than May’s 4.6% pace.
All in all, the June numbers suggest consumers are still holding up, but once you factor in tariff-driven price hikes, the real strength might not be as solid as it looks on the surface. With tariffs back in the spotlight, both investors and the Fed will be watching closely to see how spending and inflation trends develop from here.
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
US consumer sentiment picked up a bit of momentum in July, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading. The index rose to 61.8, its highest level since February, slightly topping expectations of 61.5 and climbing 1.8% from June’s reading of 60.7. That said, it’s still nearly 7% lower than it was a year ago.
The lift came from both sides of the index. The Current Conditions Index, which gauges how people feel about their personal finances and the economy right now, rose to 66.8 from 64.8 – a 3.1% gain month-over-month and a 6.5% increase from last year. The Expectations Index, which looks ahead six months, edged up to 58.6 from 58.1. That’s a modest monthly gain, but still down nearly 15% compared to July 2024.
Trade tensions have cooled somewhat, but they’re still simmering on the front burner. Surveys showed consumer confidence is still sensitive to uncertainty around trade policy, while other factors like taxes or government spending didn’t have much impact. Sentiment is still working its way back after plunging near record lows during the peak of tariff tensions in April and May.
The latest increase suggests Americans are feeling a little less uneasy about the economy – but are still a long way from the more confident days before the pandemic. For context, the CSI averaged between 90 and 100 in the years leading up to 2020. At 61.8 today, it’s a reminder that stability on the trade front will be key if sentiment is going to keep improving – and both the Fed and investors will be watching closely for any signs of fallout.
American Market Volatility
Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), continued drifting lower this week. It opened at 17.73 and spent most of the week hovering between 15.51 and 17.50 before closing at 16.41. There was a brief spike above 19 midweek after rumours circulated that President Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The White House quickly dismissed the story, but if the move had actually happened, the VIX likely would have surged well past 20 amid heightened uncertainty over Fed independence and policy direction.
If you’re new to the VIX, think of it as a real-time pulse check on investor nerves. It typically rises when markets get jittery – whether from geopolitical tension, surprise inflation data, or, say, firing the head of the Fed. When investors start pulling back from riskier assets like technology stocks, market swings get sharper, and the VIX starts to climb.
A reading between 12 and 20 usually signals a relatively calm market. But once it pushes past 20, it means traders are starting to price in more turbulence. The higher it goes, the more anxiety is baked into the markets.
Weekly Market and Portfolio Review
For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) gained 1.1%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 0.6%, the DJIA (INDU) slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) climbed 1.5%.
| Index | Weekly Streak |
| TSX: | 1 – week winning streak |
| S&P: | 1 – week winning streak |
| DJIA: | 2 – week losing streak |
| Nasdaq: | 1 – week winning streak |
The markets bounced back this week, recovering from last week’s losses, with all but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) landing back in the win column, as shown in the weekly progress chart above. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 (S&P), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) all moved higher, with both the TSX and S&P hitting new record highs. But it was the Nasdaq that really stole the spotlight – closing at record highs in six of the past seven sessions, thanks largely to Nvidia.
The chipmaker’s stock surged after announcing it would resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China. This decision was approved by the Trump administration as part of a broader deal that would give American companies access to badly needed rare earth minerals. Nvidia’s rally lifted other chip stocks as well, fuelling the Nasdaq’s strong momentum.
A mix of Nvidia excitement, economic data, the kickoff of second-quarter earnings season, and another round of trade threats all played a role in driving markets this week. But compared to previous weeks, Trump’s tariff talk didn’t shake investors the way it initially did. After threatening Canada with 35% tariffs the week before, Trump followed up with similar warnings to the EU and Mexico – each facing possible 30% tariffs. Talks are ongoing, and while all three countries have vowed to retaliate, none have acted yet.
But Trump didn’t stop there. He also threatened Russia with 100% tariffs unless it reaches a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days. To increase pressure, he warned that countries buying Russian oil – including China and India – could face “secondary” tariffs. It’s clear Trump is using economic leverage to influence global diplomacy. Yet despite the aggressive rhetoric, markets barely flinched – suggesting investors view these threats more as negotiating tactics than hard policy.
On the economic front, inflation inched higher. After four straight months of cooler-than-expected CPI reports, both headline and core inflation came in hotter than forecast. That likely slammed the door on any chance of a July rate cut by the Fed. Meanwhile, US retail sales beat expectations, which gave markets a temporary lift – though some analysts pointed out that higher prices may have been the main driver, not an increase in consumer spending.
Still, markets held steady, helped by strong quarterly results from major American banks, many of which reported solid profits and healthy balance sheets. That helped reassure investors that the economy remains on firm ground. Also lifting spirits was a wave of upbeat corporate results – what Wall Street calls “beat and raise” reports – where companies not only post better-than-expected earnings, but also raise their forecasts for future performance. It’s the kind of one-two punch investors love, and it helped push US indexes to new record highs.
In Canada, the week began with news of potential 35% US tariffs, which caused the TSX to stumble out of the gate. But markets treated the move as a negotiation signal rather than an immediate threat, and the index quickly regained its footing – going on to set two new record highs. Inflation rose modestly, cooling hopes for a summer rate cut from the BoC. Still, Canadian markets held firm through the global noise – a sign of growing investor confidence at home.
All in all, it was a week where markets showed real resilience. Between inflation surprises, the kickoff to second-quarter earnings, threats to replace the head of the Fed, and more trade tension, there was no shortage of chances for markets to overreact. But investors largely tuned out the noise and pushed markets higher. With more earnings on deck and central banks keeping a close eye on inflation and the economic data, the next few weeks could bring some interesting buying opportunities. 😊
| Portfolio | Weekly Streak |
| Portfolio 1: | 1 – week winning streak |
| Portfolio 2: | 1 – week winning streak |
| Portfolio 3: | 1 – week winning streak` |
Each of my three portfolios got back on the winning track this week, as shown in the weekly performance chart below. It was a solid showing overall, especially for the more aggressive Portfolios 1 and 3, which rode the strength of technology stocks and a surging Nasdaq to big gains.
Portfolio 1 had a strong week, beating all the major indexes with an increase in value of 3.1%. About 68% of its holdings finished in the green, led by indie Semiconductor (NASD: INDI), which surged 23%, and Navitas Semiconductor (NASD: NVTS), up 17%. Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) and Shopify (TSX: SHOP) also contributed, each rising 12%. Adding extra fuel were record-setting runs by Celestica (TSX: CLS), which hit a new all-time high, and Cameco (TSX: CCO), which notched multiple record highs as it climbed steadily throughout the week.
Portfolio 2 posted a 1.5% gain – outpacing the indexes but trailing the other two portfolios. It also had the lowest percentage of winners, with just 66% of holdings finishing higher. The standout was Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX: ATD), which jumped 10% after pulling its bid to acquire Seven & i Holdings, the parent company of 7-Eleven.
Portfolio 3 came out on top, beating both the indexes and the other portfolios with a 4.9% weekly gain. A whopping 95% of its holdings ended in the green, boosted by a 14% jump in Lithium Americas (TSX: LAC), Shopify’s 12% pop, and a nice bump from the portfolio’s newest and largest holding – Nvidia. Always nice when all but one stock posts a gain. 😊
After last week’s stumble, it was great to see all three portfolios bounce back. The surge in the Nasdaq and strength in technology stocks certainly didn’t hurt the technology-heavy portfolios. 😊 With earnings season picking up and the likelihood of more tariff threats as the August 1 deadline approaches, there’s bound to be some turbulence ahead – but for now, it’s nice to end the week firmly in the green. Onward and upward! 😊
Companies on the Radar
No new companies landed on my radar this week, but I was all set to remove Secure Energy Services (TSE: SES)), the environmental and waste management firm that supports energy and industrial clients. Then, as I started writing this section, I took one more look at the numbers. Over the past year, the stock is up more than 35%, and nearly 900% over the past five years. That’s an impressive run, especially for a company with zero connection to the AI hype. Definitely worth another look.
Here’s a quick review of this diverse group of seven companies from the previous week:
- Aritzia (TSE: ATZ): a fashion retailer and design house known for its upscale in-house brands of women’s clothing and accessories. It controls everything from design to distribution and sells through more than 130 boutiques across North America, along with a fast-growing online platform. Its main markets are Canada and the US, where it continues to expand.
- Amer Sports (NYSE: AS): a Finnish sporting goods company that went public in February 2024. It owns premium global brands like Wilson, Salomon, Arc’teryx, Atomic, and Louisville Slugger, selling in over 100 countries. Revenue comes from both retail partners and a growing direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment through branded stores and online sales. With strong revenue growth, expanding DTC margins, and a valuation below peers, Amer offers an attractive mix of growth and value. As a consumer-focused company riding the health and outdoor trend, it’s definitely caught my eye.
- TerraVest Industries (TSE: TVK): an industrial manufacturer serving the energy, agriculture, and transportation sectors across North America. Its products include propane tanks, ammonia storage vessels used in farming, natural gas transport vehicles, and various energy processing systems. It’s a solid operator in essential industries.
- Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): a Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings – typically under 100 units – across Western Canada. It acquires underperforming properties at below-market prices, renovates them, and increases rental income through improved operations. With strong demand for rental housing, a repeatable value-add strategy, and a solid balance sheet, Mainstreet offers a compelling mix of income and growth. Shares currently trade below net asset value, giving investors a margin of safety alongside steady cash flow and long-term upside.
- Secure Energy Services: an industrial company that focuses on environmental and waste management services for energy and industrial clients. It offers recycling, disposal, and infrastructure support across North America. For anyone interested in sustainability and infrastructure, this one’s worth keeping an eye on.
- Copart (NASD: CPRT): this American company runs one of the world’s largest online vehicle auction platforms, specializing in salvage cars from accidents and natural disasters. It sells on behalf of insurers, dealerships, rental companies, and individuals. Copart earns revenue through transaction fees, storage, transportation, and listing services. Its digital model, global buyer network, and asset-light approach support strong margins and steady growth. With no long-term debt and rising tailwinds from vehicle values and insurance claims, it’s a steady growth story that’s earned a spot on my radar.
- Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO): a global leader in diabetes and obesity care, thanks to products such as: Ozempic (for type 2 diabetes), Wegovy (for obesity), and Rybelsus (an oral version for diabetes). These products have pushed the company into the forefront of diabetes and medical weight loss solutions.
As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.
The Radar Check was last updated July 18, 2025.
That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!