Trade Uncertainty Returns
Last week, the United States Supreme Court ruled that many of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal. Within days, the White House announced a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with plans to raise it to 15%.
Let’s take a look at how we got here – and the uncertainty it has created.
AI Disrupters
For the past few years, anything connected to artificial intelligence (AI) felt unstoppable. Investors poured money into AI-related companies, pushing valuations higher as excitement around the technology grew. There were concerns about the massive capital expenditures required to build AI infrastructure, but the dominant narrative was simple: invest now, dominate later.
This year, that tailwind has started to feel more like a headwind. Investors shifted from asking, “Who benefits from AI?” to “When will companies start seeing a return on all that investment?” – and now, “Who gets disrupted by it?” That change in mindset helped trigger the recent meltdowns.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.
AI Turns From Tailwind to Disruptive Headwind
This past week, markets came under pressure as investor sentiment around software companies shifted sharply. While higher interest rates and stretched valuations had already been weighing on the sector, what really rattled investors was a growing belief that parts of the software and professional services industry may be facing real disruption, not just a temporary slowdown.
As I mentioned in my November 28, 2025 Weekly Update [link to Nov 28 update], I recently came across a stock I assumed was listed on Canada’s largest and most senior stock market, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE), only to discover it was actually trading on its junior counterpart, the TSX Venture Exchange. That small mix-up sent me down a rabbit hole into how Canada’s exchanges are structured and how they came to be.
January was a bit of a rollercoaster for markets. Indexes pushed to new highs, pulled back to catch their breath, and climbed again, before fading late in the month but still finishing in positive territory. Volatility (also known as buying opportunities 😊) was the name of the game.