Monthly Market and Portfolio Review
| Indexes | Monthly Streak |
| TSX: | 1 – month losing streak |
| S&P: | 2 – month losing streak |
| DJIA: | 1 – month losing streak |
| Nasdaq: | 2 – month losing streak |
If February was driven by fears around artificial intelligence (AI) spending and disruption, March marked a sharp shift to geopolitics – and the ripple effects that followed. The month started on a positive note but quickly turned lower after the US/Israel strikes on Iran, a development that changed the tone almost overnight.
Just how tough was March? It ranked among the worst 10% of months this century for both the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX) and the S&P 500 (S&P), a clear sign of how quickly investor sentiment deteriorated. The sell-off was steep enough to push the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) into correction territory – a drop of 10% or more from recent highs – while the S&P came close, falling about 9%. The TSX held up relatively better, but still marked its first monthly drop in 11 months and its largest since May 2023.
The conflict quickly became the dominant market driver, introducing a level of uncertainty that hadn’t been present just weeks earlier. Its most immediate impact showed up in energy markets. As tensions rose and concerns grew around potential disruptions to key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged.
Oil prices climbed roughly 20-30% during March, with even sharper spikes at the height of the conflict. Brent crude posted one of its strongest monthly gains on record, while the US’s West Texas Intermediate crude finished above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. For investors, this wasn’t just an energy story – rising oil prices tend to work their way through the entire economy.
Higher energy costs increase expenses for businesses and consumers alike, which can push inflation higher. After months of inflation gradually cooling, even the possibility of it picking up again pushed anticipated rate cuts further out, creating an added headwind for markets.
At the same time, uncertainty surged. Geopolitical conflicts are unpredictable by nature, and the steady flow of headlines – from escalation to potential de-escalation and back – led to sharp swings in investor sentiment. Markets don’t like unknowns, and that showed up clearly through increased volatility.
In Canada, the TSX felt many of these same pressures, though its sector mix led to a slightly different outcome. The index experienced sharp pullbacks at times, but not enough to enter correction territory.
One key difference was energy. With a larger weighting in oil and gas companies, the TSX benefited from rising oil prices, which helped cushion some of the broader weakness. That support was partially offset by financials, as banks faced pressure from the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates and a slower economic backdrop.
The result was a balancing act. Strength in energy helped limit the downside, while weakness in financials and broader uncertainty kept the index under pressure. Compared to the sharper declines in US markets, the TSX held up relatively well.
The conflict pushed both Canadian and US markets deeper into the red for 2026, but a surge on the last day helped shift investor sentiment as buyers stepped back in after the pullback – a reminder that even during uncertain periods, markets can still bounce back. March – and the first quarter – ended with a bang. Let’s hope that momentum carries into the rest of the year. 😊
| Portfolio | Monthly Streak | |
| Portfolio 1: | 5 – month losing streak | |
| Portfolio 2: | 1 – month winning streak | |
| Portfolio 3: | 3 – month losing streak |
Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations – which pushed interest rate cuts further out – March proved to be a challenging environment for all three portfolios. Despite that, there were a few relative bright spots. Portfolio 1 and Portfolio 3 both outperformed the major indexes, declining ‘only’ 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively. Portfolio 2, however, underperformed both the indexes and the other portfolios, falling 6.3% as it felt a more pronounced impact from market weakness.
Portfolio 1 ended the month slightly lower, extending its losing streak to five months. Weakness in high-growth technology names continued to weigh on performance as AI-related concerns persisted. The conflict also pressured gold prices and gold companies, which had been an important source of support earlier in the year. Despite strong individual performers like Constellation Software (TSE: CSU) and solid contributions from energy holdings, it wasn’t enough to offset broader weakness.
Portfolio 2, which has the highest exposure to energy stocks, also ended the month in the red despite strong support from rising oil prices. While energy holdings generally performed well, gains were more than offset by weakness in several non-energy names, most notably MongoDB (NASD: MDB) and Brookfield Infrastructure Corp (TSE: BIPC).
Portfolio 3 held up best compared to the other two portfolios, finishing with the smallest loss despite extending its monthly losing streak to three months. Results were mixed, with strong gains from names like Cloudflare (NYSE: NET), Shopify (TSE: SHOP), and Alvopetro Energy (TSXV: ALV) offset by sharper declines elsewhere. The biggest drag came from goeasy (TSE: GSY), which fell sharply after forecasting a C$178 million fourth-quarter incremental charge-off and suspending its dividend and share repurchases. Even larger holdings saw volatility, limiting the impact of individual winners.
Overall, limited gains across all three portfolios were not enough to offset broader market pressure, as uncertainty around inflation and interest rates weighed on performance. Hopefully, the late-month rebound carries into April and helps break the losing streaks across all three portfolios. Fingers crossed. 😊
First Quarter and Year to Date
For the quarter, and year to date, it was not pretty. It would’ve been worse if not for the market rally on the last day of the month. All three of the portfolios shed over 4% of their value. Portfolio 1 was the best of a bad lot, falling 4.3%, followed by Portfolio 2 with a loss of 6.3%, and ending with Portfolio 3 plunging 8.5%. Ouch!
Of the indexes, only the TSX was able to advance during the first three months of 2026, posting a quarterly gain of 3.3%. Meanwhile the three American indexes all finished lower, with the S&P down 4.6%, the DJIA down 3.6%, and the Nasdaq falling 7.1%. For the S&P and the DJIA, this past quarter was their deepest quarterly declines since 2022.
What My Three Portfolios Did in March 2026
Portfolio 1 for March 2026: DOWN 
Activity
No significant activity to report this month.
Dividends Received this month:
Companies followed by DRIP (Dividend Re-Investment Plan) indicate additional shares were purchased with the dividend. Any cash leftover was added to the cash balance.
Canadian $
Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN)
TMX Group (TSE: X)
Yellow Pages (TSE: Y)
Decisive Dividend (TSE: DE) DRIP
Pulse Seismic (TSE: PSD) DRIP
CN Rail (TSE: CNR)
Tourmaline Oil Corp (TSE: TOU)
US $
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V)
Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL)
Interactive Brokers Group (NASD: IBKR)
Alphabet Inc. (NASD: GOOGL)
BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: HOM.U)
Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
Quarterly Reports
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 3, 2026
Sea Limited
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 3, 2026
Tourmaline Oil Corp.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 4, 2026
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Second quarter 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026
Constellation Software Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 9, 2026
Decisive Dividend Corporation
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 11, 2026
Hammond Power Solutions Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 19, 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc
First quarter 2026 financial results on March 27, 2026
Portfolio 2 for March 2026: DOWN
Activity
Bought: Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASD: NSSC). Please see March 13, 2026, update.
Dividends Received this month:
Canadian $
Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN)
Whitecap Resources Inc (TSE: WCP)
iA Financial Corporation (TSE: IAG)
Tourmaline Oil Corp (TSE: TOU)
Brookfield Infrastructure Corp (TSE: BIPC)
US $
Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS)
Microsoft Corp. (NASD: MSFT)
Quarterly Reports
MongoDB, Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 2, 2026
Tourmaline Oil Corp.
See report under Portfolio 1.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026
South Bow Corp.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
Third quarter 2026 financial results on March 17, 2026
Hammond Power Solutions Inc.
See report under Portfolio 1.
Dollarama Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 24, 2026
Portfolio 3 for March 2026: DOWN
Activity
Sold: goeasy Ltd. Please see March 13, 2026, update.
Dividends Received this month:
Canadian $
Royal Bank of Canada (TSE: RY)
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: SRU.UN) DRIP
Brookfield Asset Management (TSE: BAM)
Brookfield Corporation (TSE: BN)
Brookfield Wealth Solutions (TSE: BNT)
Brookfield Renewables Corporation (TSE: BEPC)
Canada Packers (TSE: CPKR)
Rockpoint Gas Storage (TSE: RGSI)
US $
Microsoft Corp. (NASD: MSFT)
Vertiv Holdings (NYSE: VRT)
Quarterly Reports
Canada Packers Inc.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 4, 2026
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.
Fourth quarter 2025 financial results on March 17, 2026