Relief Rally on the Horizon?
Exploring the sectors likely to gain – or stumble – if tensions ease.
Markets on both sides of the 49th parallel have been rattled by escalating Middle East tensions. With a potential ceasefire on the horizon, investors are watching closely to see which sectors could gain – or stumble – if hostilities ease.
Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.
The US Government Reopens – What It Means for Investors
The US government had been shut down since October 1 and finally re-opened on November 13. In my October 1 Weekly Update, [link to oct 1] I talked about what caused the shutdown and what the likely impacts might be from an investing perspective. Now that it’s over, it’s a good time to look at what ended the standoff — and what it means for us as investors.
For the sixth month in a row, all four major North American indexes finished in the green: the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 Index (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq). The Nasdaq continued to lead the pack, rising more than 4% for the second straight month and marking its seventh monthly gain in a row – its longest stretch since early 2018. The TSX, S&P, and DJIA each posted their sixth straight monthly gain, with the DJIA’s streak being its longest since January 2018, the TSX’s longest since mid-2021, and the S&P’s longest since late 2021.
A Little Less Tension on the Trade Front
Global trade tensions eased a bit this week after US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping met face-to-face in Busan ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Trump did not attend the full leaders’ summit, but the bilateral meeting between the two leaders was the main focus for markets anyway. Going in, Trump described it as a “G2” meeting – a nod to the reality that these are the world’s two largest economies and when they talk, everyone else feels the impact.