The US Government Reopens – What It Means for Investors
The US government had been shut down since October 1 and finally re-opened on November 13. In my October 3 Weekly Update, I talked about what caused the shutdown and what the likely impacts might be from an investing perspective. Now that it’s over, it’s a good time to look at what ended the standoff — and what it means for us as investors.
The halt in federal operations began at midnight on October 1, 2025, when funding for the federal government expired after Congress failed to pass a continuing resolution or full appropriations for the 2026 fiscal year. The major sticking point was the status of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Democrats pushed to extend the credits to keep insurance premiums lower for millions of Americans, while Republicans – backed by the President – opposed including that in the deal.
Over the next six weeks, the effects rippled through the US economy. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers were furloughed or worked without pay, key economic data releases were delayed, and everyday services slowed or stopped altogether. Travellers faced airport disruptions, families turned to food banks, and consumer confidence took a hit. One analysis estimated that each week of the shutdown shaved roughly 0.1–0.2% off GDP growth, a pretty big drag on the economy considering it lasted six weeks.
On November 9–10, the Senate approved a funding deal, passing a continuing resolution to fund most agencies through January 30, 2026. The agreement restores pay to furloughed employees, reverses layoffs tied to the shutdown of federal agencies, and reauthorizes key programs — including food assistance — that were stretched during the funding gap. The compromise didn’t include the ACA tax credit extension Democrats wanted, but it did include a promise to hold a separate vote on that issue in December. The legislation passed the House on Wednesday evening and was signed into law by President Trump later that night.
After 43 days, making it the longest shutdown in American history and the second under President Trump, the government is finally back open for business. While the shutdown created plenty of headlines and short-term volatility, its resolution brings some much-needed relief for both Americans and the markets.
For Americans, the reopening is a welcome reset. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are back at work, paycheques are flowing again, and that should help lift consumer spending and confidence. Programs that stalled – from scientific research to permits, visas, and benefits – can now resume, helping households and businesses that rely on those services.
For us investors, the reopening removes a major source of uncertainty. Markets often respond positively once a shutdown ends because a big unknown has been resolved. The return of key economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which releases jobs and inflation reports like the Consumer Price Index) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (which publishes Gross Domestic Product and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) gives both the Fed and investors the information they need to make better decisions. With the data pipeline restored, markets can refocus on fundamentals, corporate earnings, and the Fed’s interest rate policy instead of political drama.
Canadian investors and markets will feel some relief too. A functioning US government means smoother trade, stronger demand for Canadian exports, and less stress on cross-border supply chains. It also gives clearer signals to Canadian policymakers and investors. In short, while the shutdown rattled nerves, the reopening restores a sense of normalcy – and history shows markets usually recover quickly once uncertainty clears. 😊
With Washington finally back in action, markets can turn their attention to what really matters – earnings, economic data, and central bank interest rate policy. It’s been a chaotic few weeks, but investors can now look forward to more clarity in the data and less noise from politics. So, with the federal funding standoff behind us, let’s take a look at how the markets performed this week, and how my portfolios held up.
Items that may only interest or educate me ….
Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….
Canadian Economic news
This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Bank of Canada minutes
On October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate by 0.25% to 2.25%, noting this level likely represents the lower bound for interest rates in the current environment. The minutes, which were released this week, highlighted slower economic growth, soft exports, weak business investment, a cooling labour market with rising unemployment, and concerns about the impact of US tariffs on the Canadian economy. Inflation remains within the Bank’s 1%–3% target range and is expected to stay near target over the medium term. Future policy adjustments will depend on how the economy and inflation evolve.
The minutes emphasised that the rate cut is intended to support economic activity while keeping inflation in check. The Bank also resumed publishing full economic and inflation projections, providing greater transparency about its outlook and interest rate considerations.
Looking ahead, the Bank’s next rate announcement comes on December 10. Investors will be watching closely for signals about 2026 policy, especially since surveys suggest rates may hold steady for some time.
Canadian Market Volatility
Canada’s volatility gauge, the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC), started the week around 15.15 and stayed fairly calm, hovering between 15 and 16 for most of the week before ending the week at 18.13. There were, however, a couple of brief jolts above 20. The fact that the VIXC quickly dropped back below 17.5 after each spike suggests that investors were alert but not alarmed. These moves looked more like momentary flickers of worry than a genuine loss of confidence.
For anyone new to it, the VIXC acts as a barometer of investor nerves in Canada. Lower readings, usually in the low teens, indicate calmer markets, while higher levels suggest investors are bracing for more volatility. Finishing the week back near 18 points to a cautious, watchful mood – far from panic.
US Economic news
This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Government Data is Back
The historic 43-day shutdown has finally ended, bringing the US government back online. With the government back in action, investors can expect the release of key economic reports that were delayed during the stoppage. Most of the September data should roll out fairly quickly since it was already collected before the government grinded to a halt. October data, however, is a different story – much of it wasn’t gathered at all, meaning some reports could be skipped entirely. The White House has even said that reports delayed by the shutdown “will be permanently impaired” and probably will never be released. Still, the long-awaited September figures should bring some much-needed clarity on how the economy is performing and provide insight into whether another rate cut might be on the table at the Fed’s December meeting. The return of official data will finally lift some of the fog that’s been hanging over the US economic picture.
American Market Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the market’s “fear gauge”, started the week around 18.18 before quickly falling to the 17.5 level, where it stayed for most of the week. But by Thursday, worries that the Fed might pause rate cuts, along with fresh talk of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, pushed volatility higher. The fear gauge jumped above 21 then drifted downward to end the week at 20.07.
Think of the VIX as the market’s mood ring — it tracks how anxious or confident investors feel. Even with that mid-week spike, a close just above 20 suggests a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Investors aren’t panicking, but they’re definitely keeping one eye on the exits.
Weekly Market and Portfolio Review
For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) climbed 1.4%, the S&P 500 (SPX) inched higher 0.1%, the DJIA (INDU) grew 0.3% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) slipped 0.5%.
| Index | Weekly Streak |
| TSX: | 1 – week winning streak |
| S&P: | 1 – week winning streak |
| DJIA: | 1 – week winning streak |
| Nasdaq: | 2 – week losing streak |
The markets carried forward the upward momentum from last week, with the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 (S&P), and the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq) each climbing at least 1.4% at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lagged slightly, rising 0.8%, but still rode the momentum to notch a record high the next day. After those early gains, the American indexes swung into a rollercoaster pattern, delivering the most volatile stretch in weeks, including the sharpest one-day drop in over a month.
With third-quarter earnings season winding down and official, major economic news on pause due to the government stoppage, markets were pushed and pulled by familiar forces. The weeks-long shutdown had taken a toll on consumer confidence and the broader economy, with sentiment dipping near record lows. This week, optimism over the imminent, and eventual, end of the shutdown helped lift markets, as investors looked forward to the return of government economic data and an easing of the shutdown’s drag on growth. While much of October’s data may never be released due to collection gaps, the September reports should offer insight into how the economy is holding up and whether another rate cut could be on the table at the Fed’s December meeting.
The lack of official data has made it harder for the Fed to gauge the economy and for analysts to predict its next move. After a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials this week, many investors now expect the Fed to hold the benchmark rate at 3.75% at their December meeting. A week earlier, investors were pricing in a roughly 90% chance of another cut; that probability has now fallen to about 50%, marking a sharp swing in sentiment.
Meanwhile, technology stocks, especially AI-related companies, stumbled as concerns over high valuations and softer-than-expected forecasts hit the sector. Earnings season added to the turbulence: while many companies beat expectations, a handful of big tech disappointments stirred fears of an “AI bubble,” prompting investors to rotate out of high-valuation stocks. That shift put downward pressure on the technology heavy Nasdaq and capped gains in the S&P.
In Canada, while the American indexes were bouncing around, the TSX mostly kept climbing. Stronger gold and commodity prices, solid earnings, and some spillover optimism from the American government reopening helped push the index to a record high midweek. It did lose a bit of steam afterward as investors digested the possibility of interest rates holding steady in both countries and as the downdraft from US markets drifted north. Still, Friday’s bounce in gold and oil prices helped the TSX finish the week on an upbeat note.
Overall, rising commodity prices and relief over a functioning US government offered welcome support. Even so, interest rate worries and renewed doubts about the durability of the AI boom weighed heavily on tech stocks and ultimately pushed the Nasdaq into the red. The week felt like a mix of helpful tailwinds and tech-driven headwinds — gains were possible, but it was a grind.
Now attention turns to next week. The official US labour data for September is back on the calendar, and both analysts and the Fed will be watching closely. But for investors, the main event is Nvidia’s (NASD: NVDA) third-quarter earnings. It’s the report many see as a test of whether the AI story still has momentum or whether the recent wobble in tech is the start of something more painful.
| Portfolio | Weekly Streak |
| Portfolio 1: | 2 – week losing streak |
| Portfolio 2: | 1 – week winning streak |
| Portfolio 3: | 2 – week losing streak |
Halfway through the week, I was feeling pretty good about my three portfolios. The TSX and the DJIA had both hit all-time highs, the US government looked ready to reopen, and the overall mood felt upbeat. What could go wrong? 😊
Well… Thursday went wrong. Markets took a sharp turn lower, and by the end of the day, only one of my portfolios was still floating. Even with a small bounce on Friday, it wasn’t enough to pull the other two back above water. ☹
Portfolio 1 slid 1.2%, with just 30% of its companies finishing the week higher. The tech-heavy lineup felt the full weight of the AI pullback, though a few energy names helped soften the impact. There weren’t many bright spots, but Datadog (NASD: DDOG) and CrowdStrike (NASD: CRWD) both set all-time highs before drifting back and ending the week lower. The biggest drags were Hammond Power Solutions (TSE: HPS.A) and Cloudflare (NYSE: NET), both down 12%, along with Cameco (TSE: CCO), which fell 11%.
Portfolio 2 was the lone bright spot. A 0.9% gain isn’t exactly fireworks, but after the last week, it felt good to see it back in the win column. It didn’t have any standout surges, but steady strength from its energy names and broad, modest gains across the portfolio – with 60% of holdings finishing positive – kept it in the green, even with Hammond Power Solutions’ 12% slide.
Portfolio 3 had the toughest week, dropping 1.3%. It only holds one energy name, and that one chose the wrong direction too. ☹ The real hit came from its two largest positions – Nvidia and Shopify (TSE: SHOP) – both pulling back, combined with a general decline across the board, including Cloudflare’s 12% drop. Only about 20% of the portfolio managed a gain, leaving it firmly underwater for the week.
With all the uncertainty swirling around the markets – from interest rate jitters to the tech pullback – it’s no surprise my portfolios felt the waves too. The push-and-pull between strong commodity prices and renewed worries about an AI bubble basically played out inside my accounts in real time. Now all eyes turn to Nvidia. If the company delivers another stellar earnings report, Portfolios 1 and 3 could easily join Portfolio 2 in the win column. If the results disappoint, though, we might be in for another choppy stretch. Fingers crossed. 😊
Companies on the Radar
It’s been a hectic few weeks on my radar with companies jumping on and off, but things finally settled down. Only one new name showed up this week — Constellation Software (TSE: CSU). Normally a stock with that kind of price tag wouldn’t land on my radar, but a ~37% pullback brought it into a range that actually made sense to explore. After hearing multiple analysts talk about adding to their CSU positions and spotting some insider buying, Constellation didn’t stay a “maybe” for long. It earned a quick stop on the radar before heading straight into Portfolio 1.
With Constellation’s short visit now wrapped up, my radar list is back to the six companies listed below:
- GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE): This is the large American aviation and defence business that remained after General Electric split into three separate companies in 2024. It has been on a strong run thanks to high demand for commercial jet engines as global air travel continues to recover. The company focuses on aircraft propulsion systems and services for both commercial and military customers, and it’s also moving into drones. As a global leader in jet engines and aircraft systems, GE Aerospace offers exposure to long-term trends in travel, defence spending, and emerging aviation technology.
- Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASD: NSSC): A small US company that provides security hardware and systems like smart locks, intrusion alarms, fire alarms, and access control solutions. It sells through a network of distributors and installers, and has been increasing its recurring service revenue – something investors usually like to see. As demand for security and smart home products grows, Napco has multiple avenues for expansion.
- Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): A large US company known for specialty glass and optical technologies. Corning is the longstanding supplier of the glass used in iPhones and is also benefiting from the surge in demand for high quality fiber optics as data centres expand to support AI and cloud computing. The company is riding several tailwinds with long-term growth potential.
- Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): A Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings across Western Canada. Their business model is straightforward: buy underperforming buildings, renovate them, improve operations, and increase rental income. With strong demand for rentals, a disciplined approach, and shares that trade below the estimated value of the properties, Mainstreet offers a combination of income, stability, and long-term upside.
- Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS): A rapidly expanding drive-thru coffee chain in the US, known for its energetic customer service and customizable drinks. The company is aiming to open at least 160 new locations by the end of 2025 and has long-term goals of surpassing 2,000 stores. Strong brand loyalty, especially in the Western US, makes this an interesting high-growth story – though still in an aggressive build-out phase.
- XPEL, Inc. (NASD: XPEL): A growing, founder-led maker of protective films, coatings, and related products – best known for automotive paint protection film. XPEL has been expanding into window films and architectural applications, and sells through multiple channels, giving it both reach and control. It’s a company with a focused niche and strong brand recognition in that niche.
As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.
The Radar Check was last updated November 14, 2025.
Portfolio Update
Portfolio 1
Bought: Constellation Software. This Canadian company grabbed my attention because it has spent decades doing something most companies simply aren’t good at: quietly buying small, steady, not-so-flashy software businesses and turning them into long-term winners. These are niche companies with loyal customers, predictable revenue, and very little competition. Constellation has built a whole system around finding them, buying them at sensible prices, and then giving strong managers the freedom to keep running them well. That model has turned into a reliable engine of growth that doesn’t depend on hype cycles or big moonshot bets.
What really stands out is how consistent the company is. Even as it’s grown into a giant, it still behaves like a disciplined operator focused on cash flow, smart reinvestment, and returns on capital — all the ingredients long-term investors love. When the stock finally pulled back in a meaningful way, it created a rare opening for people who’ve been watching it from afar to take a closer look.
It also helps that Constellation’s DNA is still very much shaped by its founder, Mark Leonard. He stepped down as CEO in September 2025 due to health reasons, but he’s still on the Board and remains a guiding force behind the company’s strategy and capital allocation mindset. His successor, Mark Miller, had been with Constellation and its Volaris group for more than 30 years before taking the top job. Prior to becoming the CEO, he had been the Chief operating Officer since 2013, working closely with Mr. Leonard. He knows the business inside and out, and that kind of continuity makes the leadership transition feel a lot smoother.
Of course, no company is risk-free. Constellation relies heavily on finding and integrating niche software businesses, and the model comes with competition, technology shifts, and leverage to manage. Those risks, though, have always been part of how the company operates — and it has navigated them well for decades. The recent slide in the share price mostly came from concerns about how emerging AI tools might affect legacy software businesses, combined with uncertainty around the CEO transition.
To me, Constellation’s long-term track record of disciplined growth was too good to ignore, and the recent pullback created a rare chance to become an owner of one of Canada’s true business success stories at a discount. I’m happy to own a small piece of it (very small, but still 😊). It felt like the perfect moment to join in as an owner of one of the country’s strongest and most resilient companies.
That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!