When Markets Stop Shrugging It Off
The US/Israel-Iran conflict, which began on February 28, is now about to enter its fifth week as you read this. Despite reports of back-channel peace talks, there are still no clear signs of an end in sight. In my March 6, 2026, Weekly Update, I focused on how a short conflict – what was initially expected – could affect markets. This week, the bigger question is what happens if it lasts longer.
If the Conflict Stays Short, These Sectors Could Move Most
Last week [link to Mar 6] I looked at the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran from an investor’s perspective. The situation is still evolving, but one of the key questions for markets is how long the conflict might last. If the fighting remains relatively short – perhaps four to five weeks – history suggests the economic impact would likely be uneven rather than universally negative.
Geopolitical shocks tend to push markets into a brief “risk-off” phase where investors shift away from more cyclical or economically sensitive sectors and toward industries that benefit directly from higher energy prices or global uncertainty. The result is often a temporary reshuffling of winners and losers across sectors rather than a lasting change to the overall economic outlook. This week, I’ll discuss how a four-to-five week conflict could impact three of the key sectors that move the markets in Canada, as well as three that drive the US market.
February was a choppy month for the markets – or, as I like to call it, the month disrupted… by AI 😊. After a solid start, swings in artificial intelligence (AI) sentiment and broader economic worries became the defining themes, showing up differently across the four major North American indexes.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.
From Wild West to Launchpad: The Story of the TSXV
A few weeks ago, I took a look at the history of Canada’s premier stock market – the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) [link to Nov. 28]. Also known as the big board, it’s the top rung on the TSX ladder. I also mentioned its junior counterpart, the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV). This week, I thought I’d follow up with a closer look at this often overlooked but essential part of Canada’s market ecosystem. So, without further ado, in the words of Daenerys Stormborn – “Let’s begin.”
The TSX: From Trading Club to Major Market
A few weeks ago, while writing the weekly portfolio update, I came across a stock I assumed was on the Toronto Stock Exchange, only to discover it was actually on the TSX Venture Exchange. Then I saw another company I thought was a Venture listing but was actually on the main TSX. That mix-up sent me down a rabbit hole about how the Exchange works and its history. I found the story surprisingly interesting, and this week I thought I’d share some of that history behind Canada’s largest stock market – the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).