This marks the final Weekly Update of 2025 – and somehow, another year has flown by while markets did what they do best: surprise, frustrate, and occasionally reward us patient investors. 😊 I’ll be taking a short break over the holidays, but the Weekly Update will be back in early January to kick off 2026.
Stay bullish during the holidays.
A sincere thank you for following along throughout the year and sticking with me through the twists and turns markets threw our way. Here’s hoping the momentum we’ve seen over the last few years carries into the new year, and that the seeds long-term investors are planting grow into majestic oak trees – preferably a bit faster than nature intended! 😊 In the meantime, enjoy the holiday season as 2025 wraps up, and may 2026 bring good health, happiness, and plenty of reasons to feel optimistic.
With Christmas just around the corner, markets gave us one final hectic week full of economic data before year-end. But before diving into the numbers, let’s pause for a little holiday spirit and peek at the markets through the lens of A Christmas Carol.
Picture Ebenezer Scrooge fretting over every market dip – a scene many investors will recognize. He’s checking his portfolio more than he checks his holiday lights and sighing louder than anyone untangling Christmas lights ever could. Then in stroll the three ghosts:
- The Ghost of Markets Past reminds us of the surprises that shaped the year. Remember Liberation Day sending markets into a tailspin? That rough patch quickly turned into a rally that carried much of 2025.
- The Ghost of Markets Present highlights the opportunities quietly compounding today – Canadian banks generating solid returns, technology giants continuing to climb higher, and sectors like Financials and Basic Materials (gold, copper, and more) quietly adding gains even if headlines overlooked them. Think of it as gifts quietly piling up under the tree while everyone else is distracted by the tinsel.
- The Ghost of Markets Yet to Come teases the potential of 2026: long-term investors staying the course, disciplined strategies paying off, and letting the snowball effect of compounding work its magic. The moral? Patience may not be flashy, but it’s usually the best present of all.
Even in a year full of twists, a little perspective – and a dose of holiday cheer – goes a long way. So, grab your cocoa, relax, and let’s take a look at what happened this past week….
Items that may only interest or educate me ….
Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….
Canadian Economic news
This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Canada’s headline inflation for November 2025 came in at 2.2% year-over-year, unchanged from October and slightly below expectations of around 2.3%. Inflation continues to sit comfortably within the Bank of Canada’s 1%–3% target range. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.1%, easing from October’s 0.2% increase and reinforcing the idea that price pressures are cooling rather than re-accelerating.
Looking under the hood, food prices were the biggest annual driver, rising 4.2% year-over-year, while gasoline was the only major category to post lower prices, down 7.8% from last year. Month-to-month, gasoline prices jumped 1.8%, while costs tied to recreation, education, and reading fell 2.0%, helping keep overall inflation in check.
Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, continued to move in the right direction. Core CPI slowed to 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in October, while monthly core inflation fell 0.4%, reversing much of the prior month’s increase.
With headline inflation steady, food prices still running hot, and core inflation easing, the latest data supports the BoC’s decision to pause rates at 2.25%. Barring a meaningful re-acceleration in labour markets or economic growth, this report points toward rates remaining on hold into early 2026.
Retail Sales
Statistics Canada’s October Retail Sales report showed consumer spending continuing to cool, with sales slipping 0.2% after a 0.7% decline in September. The result came in weaker than economists expected and marked the second straight monthly pullback. On a year-over-year basis, sales were still up 2.0%, but that pace has slowed meaningfully from the 3.4% growth seen in September. Once price changes are stripped out, the picture looks even softer, with real (volume) retail sales falling 0.6%.
At the category level, food and beverage retailers led the decline, with sales dropping 2.0% month over month. That weakness was partially offset by strength elsewhere, as furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers saw sales rise 1.1%. Looking over the past year, the strongest gains continue to come from clothing, accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage, and leather goods retailers, where sales climbed 8.9%, while food and beverage sales were essentially flat compared with a year ago.
Core retail sales, which exclude volatile categories like gasoline and motor vehicles, fell 0.5% in October after being flat in September. On a year-over-year basis, core sales are still up a healthy 3.4%, though that too is a slowdown from the 4.1% pace recorded in September.
This latest data suggests Canada’s holiday shopping season got off to a sluggish start, with consumers clearly more cautious in October. While early indications point to a rebound in November, the broader trend lines up with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere: households are spending more selectively as higher prices, a softening labour market, and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on confidence.
Canadian Market Volatility
Canada’s VIXC, essentially the TSX’s own “fear gauge”, started the week at 11.67 and spent most of the time trading in a calm 11–13 range. The exception came mid-week, when the index briefly jumped to near 15 before quickly retreating below 13 the following day and finishing the week at 12.26. That short-lived spike had more to do with US-driven uncertainty spilling into Canadian markets than anything uniquely domestic. Investors were hedging ahead of key US inflation data, and once those numbers came in better than expected, the uncertainty faded just as quickly.
Think of the VIXC as Canada’s market mood ring: readings in the low teens suggest a steady, watchful tone rather than outright anxiety. Investors are keeping an eye on the road ahead, but there’s no panic in the cabin.
US Economic news
This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Labour data
The recent US government shutdown put several key economic reports on pause, leaving both the Fed and investors a little in the dark on the health of the labour market. This week, that gap was finally filled with the release of October’s Employment Situation Summary (ESS). Looking ahead, January should bring a return to the usual timing schedule, with the ESS, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and ADP Employment Report all arriving in the first week of the month – back to the predictable schedule everyone relies on.
Employment Situation Summary (ESS)
After a 43-day government shutdown delayed the data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finally released a combined look at October and November employment. The numbers show a labour market that’s clearly losing momentum. October payrolls fell by roughly 105,000 jobs, largely driven by cuts to federal government positions, while November delivered a modest rebound with about 64,000 jobs added, slightly better than expectations of 50,000. Even with that bounce, job growth has slowed meaningfully compared with recent trends. For context, September – the last report published before the shutdown – showed job gains of 108,000.
The unemployment rate also moved higher than expected, rising to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. Economists had expected the rate to hold steady, making this the highest unemployment reading since September 2021. The increase reflects a combination of softer hiring and the outsized impact of government workforce reductions, reinforcing the picture of a cooling labour market.
Wage growth continued to ease as well. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.2% previously, while the annual pace slowed to around 3.5% from 3.8%. That marks the slowest year-over-year wage growth in a couple of years and suggests inflation pressures tied to labour costs are gradually easing.
This report is unusual because it blends two months of data after the shutdown disrupted normal surveys, adding some noise to the numbers. Still, the broader message is consistent: hiring is slowing, unemployment is drifting higher, and wage growth is cooling. Those are exactly the kinds of shifts the Fed watches as it assesses the overall direction of the economy and weighs the path forward for interest rates.
Retail Sales
The Commerce Department’s October retail sales report showed US consumer spending losing momentum. Headline sales, which include all categories, from autos and gasoline to food and clothing, were flat month-over-month after seasonal adjustment, falling short of expectations for a 0.3% increase and marking a clear slowdown from September’s modest 0.1% gain. While retail sales were still up 3.5% from a year ago, the pace has cooled compared with earlier in 2025, reinforcing signs that the burst of summer spending is fading.
Beneath the surface, the picture was mixed. Furniture and home furnishings stores posted a solid 2.3% monthly increase, while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw sales fall 1.6%, weighing on the overall result. Over the past year, spending at miscellaneous retailers jumped 9.5%, but sales at building materials and garden supply stores declined 4.5%, reflecting pockets of both strength and weakness across categories.
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, parts, and gasoline, rose a healthy 0.5% in October, even as the year-over-year pace edged down slightly from 4.4% to 4.2%. That suggests consumers are still spending, but doing so more selectively rather than broadly.
Retail sales are still one of the clearest monthly gauges of consumer health, and with consumer spending accounting for the lion’s share of US economic activity, a flat headline number matters. It points to households becoming more cautious amid higher interest rates and economic uncertainty. Still, the resilience in core categories shows spending hasn’t fallen off a cliff – it’s simply cooling. Paired with recent data showing slower job growth and a rising unemployment rate, this report adds to the growing narrative of an economy gradually losing steam, something the Fed will be watching closely.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This week’s CPI report from the BLS delivered more encouraging news on inflation, though with a small asterisk. Headline inflation, which measures the overall change in prices consumers pay, rose about 2.7% year over year in November, down from roughly 3.0% in September and below expectations for a similar 3.0% reading. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% over the two months from October to November 2025, also coming in below forecasts of a 0.3% increase.
Under the surface, price trends were mixed but generally supportive of cooling inflation. Fuel oil prices jumped 11.3% over the past year, while clothing prices rose just 0.2%. Shelter costs, which include rent, mortgages, and homeowner expenses, continued to slow, increasing 0.2% in November, while the annual pace eased from 3.6% in September to 3.0%. Given shelter’s heavy weight in CPI, that deceleration matters.
Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy categories, also continued to cool. Core CPI rose around 2.6% year over year, while the monthly pace slowed to 0.2% over the October–November period, both slightly below expectations of 3.0% and 0.3%, respectively.
Taken together, the data suggest price pressures across the economy are gradually easing. That said, this report follows the recent government shutdown, which disrupted normal data collection and forced the BLS to rely on alternative sources, adding some noise to the numbers. Even so, the broader trend still points in the right direction – something the Fed will be watching closely as it weighs the timing and pace of future interest rate moves.
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
The University of Michigan’s final CSI for December inched higher to 52.9, up from 51.0 in November, but slightly below the preliminary December reading of 53.3 and expectations for 53.5. Even with that improvement, sentiment remains deeply depressed, sitting about 28.5% below its level a year ago, when the index stood at 74.0.
Looking under the hood, the Current Economic Conditions index, which reflects how consumers feel about their jobs, income, and day-to-day finances, slipped to 50.4 from 51.1 in November and remains roughly 33% lower than a year ago. In contrast, the Expectations Index, which captures how consumers view the next six months, edged up to 54.6. That marked a 7.1% improvement from November, though it’s still about 25.5% below last December’s level. In short, consumers are feeling slightly better about the future, even as their assessment of current conditions has weakened.
Heading into the Christmas holidays, consumers appear slightly less pessimistic than last month, but overall confidence is still subdued and near historically low levels. That lines up with other recent data showing that while spending hasn’t collapsed, sentiment has stayed weak amid lingering inflation concerns, a softening labour market, and broader economic uncertainty.
American Market Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the market’s “fear gauge”, had a relatively calm week. It opened at 15.52 and spent most of the time drifting in a narrow 16–17 range. The employment data barely moved the needle, though volatility briefly spiked toward 18 in the lead-up to the inflation release. When inflation came in better than expected, the VIX dipped below 16 before climbing back toward 17 as markets braced for the PCE inflation report. That report also landed on the softer side, fueling hopes for one or two rate cuts in 2026 and helping push the VIX down to 14.91 by week’s end.
Think of the VIX as the market’s pulse. A few weeks ago, it was racing, signalling elevated nerves. This week, it settled into a steadier, healthier rhythm. Investors aren’t completely carefree, but they’re clearly breathing a bit easier as inflation cools and borrowing costs begin to edge lower.
Weekly Market and Portfolio Review
For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) gained 0.7%, the S&P 500 (SPX) increased 0.1%, the DJIA (INDU) dropped 0.7% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) added 0.5%.
| Index | Weekly Streak |
| TSX: | 2 – week winning streak |
| S&P: | 1 – week winning streak |
| DJIA: | 1 – week losing streak |
| Nasdaq: | 1 – week winning streak |
Once again, markets stumbled out of the gate, and this time the weakness lingered for much of the week. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 Index (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) all spent several sessions in the red. The Nasdaq snapped a three-day losing streak on Tuesday, while the other indexes had to wait until Thursday to break four-day skids. A late-week rally made all the difference. By Friday’s close, the TSX, S&P, and Nasdaq had posted modest weekly gains, while the DJIA finished just shy of breakeven.
Markets reacted to a mix of economic data and renewed uncertainty around artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Early in the week, investors worried that AI stocks had run too far, too fast, and questioned whether companies investing billions in AI infrastructure would see significant returns. Companies borrowing heavily to fund AI expansion came under close scrutiny, as investors feared high debt levels could magnify losses if projects fail, hitting the most leveraged firms hardest.
Sentiment improved midweek after Micron Technology (NASD: MU) reported strong earnings and an upbeat outlook, citing rising demand from a global memory chip shortage affecting everything from smartphones to data centres. AI-linked stocks steadied further when reports surfaced that the US administration is reviewing potential sales of Nvidia’s (NASD: NVDA) H200 chips to China, clearing the way for increased sales to Nvidia’s second biggest market.
On the economic front, November’s Employment Situation Summary offered little clarity on interest rates. Job growth remained positive, but unemployment ticked higher, reaching its highest level since 2021. The Fed continues to weigh a cooling labour market against inflation that has eased but not fully disappeared.
Retail sales added more context. Headline sales were flat in October, showing a cautious consumer, while core sales held up better, indicating households are spending selectively. This fits with higher interest rates starting to bite, slowing job growth, and gradually easing inflation pressures.
The CPI report tied everything together. Inflation continues to cool, both at the headline and core level, with shelter costs moderating. Slower wage growth and a softer job market are reducing one of inflation’s key drivers, suggesting policy is having its intended effect.
Taken together, the employment, retail sales, and inflation data tell a consistent story. The economy is losing momentum but not stalling. Consumers and businesses are more cautious, inflation pressures are easing, and growth is slowing in a controlled way. For the Fed, this combination supports the idea that monetary policy is working without tipping the economy into a sharp downturn.
In Canada, the TSX started the week slowly but recovered by Friday. Early weakness mirrored US indexes as investors digested American economic data and interest rate uncertainty, AI concerns, and falling oil prices. By the end of the week, easing US inflation data, a stronger-than-expected Canadian economy, and rising commodity prices helped lift the TSX into positive territory and finish the week on a positive note.
While uncertainty around AI spending and global developments remains, markets have shown resilience, suggesting investors are cautiously optimistic that growth can continue without major disruptions. The rosier inflation picture, combined with a softening labour market, has reignited hopes that the Fed will continue its recent string of rate cuts, fueling the late-month rally, hinting at a last-minute Santa Claus rally. As 2025 winds down, investors fine-tuning their portfolios before year-end are likely to keep markets busy, but the broader trend still points to a steady, if measured, start to 2026.
| Portfolio | Weekly Streak |
| Portfolio 1: | 1 – week winning streak |
| Portfolio 2: | 4 – week winning streak |
| Portfolio 3: | 1 – week winning streak |
It was looking like I was going to head into the Christmas break with all three portfolios riding losing streaks. Early in the week, a pullback in AI-related stocks weighed on all three portfolios, while falling oil prices added extra pressure on Portfolio 2. As the week went on, though, hopes of lower interest rates started dancing in investors’ heads, helping markets rebound and claw back much of the early damage. I was more than happy to see that rising tide lift all three portfolios from underwater to solidly back in the green.
Portfolio 1 was deep in the red heading into Friday, but the late rally in AI stocks catapulted it into positive territory, finishing the week up 0.2%. Despite the modest gain, it posted the lowest share of weekly winners, with just 42% of holdings ending in the green. The early-week AI selloff did most of the damage, though a rebound in AI names, including a weekly gain from Nvidia, the portfolio’s largest holding, helped turn things around. Highlights were few, but TD Bank (TSE: TD) reached an all-time high, and Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) cruised to 10% gain following a strong quarterly earnings report.
Portfolio 2 lagged the other two but still managed to post a 0.1% gain, with 44% of holdings finishing higher on the week. There were no standout winners or painful laggards, but sometimes a quiet, uneventful week is a win in itself. Maybe that’s the highlight. 😊
Portfolio 3 was the pleasant surprise. Given the early AI weakness, I was expecting results closer to Portfolio 1, but it finished the week up an impressive 2.0%. Half of the holdings ended higher, and more importantly, the two largest positions, Nvidia and Shopify (TSE: SHOP), both finished in the green. As those two go, so goes the portfolio. 😊 Adding to the good news, TD Bank and Royal Bank (TSE: RY) both reached new all-time highs.
All told, it turned out to be a much better week than it looked early on. It hasn’t been a great month, but the late-week rebound and shift in tone, especially around AI companies, was a welcome change. With inflation cooling, rate-cut hopes back on the table, and several core holdings advancing, the stage is at least set for a little holiday cheer. If this turns out to be the start of a late Santa Claus rally, I’ll happily take it – better late than never. 😊
Companies on the Radar
This week, two very different companies came across my radar. One is an innovation-driven business offering exposure to the commercial space economy – Rocket Lab (NASD: RKLB). The other is largely unknown and often overlooked yet plays a critical role in North America’s energy supply chain – Rockpoint Gas Storage (TSE: RGSI).
Let’s start with Rocket Lab, an aerospace company focused on space launch services and space systems. At its core, it launches rockets that carry small satellites into orbit and builds space hardware such as spacecraft platforms and mission management solutions. The company was founded in 2006 by Peter Beck, a New Zealand engineer who remains CEO today, and went public via a SPAC merger in August 2021. Under Beck’s leadership, Rocket Lab has steadily evolved from a pure small rocket launch provider into a more integrated, end-to-end space solutions company.
On the other end of the spectrum is Rockpoint Gas Storage, a natural gas infrastructure company and the largest independent pure-play operator focused solely on gas storage in North America. It owns and operates six strategically located underground storage facilities across Alberta and California. These assets help balance seasonal and short-term swings in natural gas supply and demand by storing gas when supply is abundant and releasing it when demand rises.
While Rockpoint’s operations trace back more than 35 years, the company only became publicly listed on October 15, 2025. Its IPO was the largest in Canada since mid-2022, and Brookfield Infrastructure remains the majority owner, retaining control of the core assets. Unlike commodity producers, Rockpoint’s business is built around infrastructure services backed by long-term, contracted revenue, offering a higher degree of stability and predictability.
These two companies are about as opposite in style as you can find. Rocket Lab is a growth-oriented investment, offering exposure to the commercial space economy, with the key challenge being the trade-off between meaningful near-term losses – the company is still well in the red – and long-term expansion potential. Rockpoint, by contrast, is an infrastructure business with stable, long-term cash flows and exposure to critical energy markets, with storage services backed by contracted revenue that provide a level of predictability commodity producers typically lack.
With the addition of these two very different opportunities, my radar list now sits at seven companies.
- GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE): This is the large American aviation and defence business that remained after General Electric split into three separate companies in 2024. It has been on a strong run thanks to high demand for commercial jet engines as global air travel continues to recover. The company focuses on aircraft propulsion systems and services for both commercial and military customers, and it’s also moving into drones. As a global leader in jet engines and aircraft systems, GE Aerospace offers exposure to long-term trends in travel, defence spending, and emerging aviation technology.
- Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): A Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings across Western Canada. Their business model is straightforward: buy underperforming buildings, renovate them, improve operations, and increase rental income. With strong demand for rentals, a disciplined approach, and shares that trade below the estimated value of the properties, Mainstreet offers a combination of income, stability, and long-term upside.
- Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASD: NSSC): A small US company that provides security hardware and systems like smart locks, intrusion alarms, fire alarms, and access control solutions. It sells through a network of distributors and installers, and has been increasing its recurring service revenue – something investors usually like to see. As demand for security and smart home products grows, Napco has multiple avenues for expansion.
- Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS): A rapidly expanding drive-thru coffee chain in the US, known for its energetic customer service and customizable drinks. The company is aiming to open at least 160 new locations by the end of 2025 and has long-term goals of surpassing 2,000 stores. Strong brand loyalty, especially in the Western US, makes this an interesting high-growth story – though still in an aggressive build-out phase.
- XPEL, Inc. (NASD: XPEL): A growing, founder-led maker of protective films, coatings, and related products – best known for automotive paint protection film. XPEL has been expanding into window films and architectural applications, and sells through multiple channels, giving it both reach and control. It’s a company with a focused niche and strong brand recognition in that niche.
As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.
The Radar Check was last updated December 19, 2025.
Note: Rockpoint only became publicly traded recently, so there isn’t enough historical data yet for the Long-Term Growth Estimate and LSEG Fundamentals columns shown below.
That’s a wrap for this week – and for 2025. Thanks for reading! May Santa bring you a great stock idea in the new year, and as always, may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next year! 🎄