Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.
February was a choppy month for the markets – or, as I like to call it, the month disrupted… by AI 😊. After a solid start, swings in artificial intelligence (AI) sentiment and broader economic worries became the defining themes, showing up differently across the four major North American indexes.
Trade Uncertainty Returns
Last week, the United States Supreme Court ruled that many of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal. Within days, the White House announced a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with plans to raise it to 15%.
Let’s take a look at how we got here – and the uncertainty it has created.
AI Disrupters
For the past few years, anything connected to artificial intelligence (AI) felt unstoppable. Investors poured money into AI-related companies, pushing valuations higher as excitement around the technology grew. There were concerns about the massive capital expenditures required to build AI infrastructure, but the dominant narrative was simple: invest now, dominate later.
This year, that tailwind has started to feel more like a headwind. Investors shifted from asking, “Who benefits from AI?” to “When will companies start seeing a return on all that investment?” – and now, “Who gets disrupted by it?” That change in mindset helped trigger the recent meltdowns.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.
September flipped the script on its usual reputation as a tough month for stocks. North American markets finished strong, capping a solid third quarter and extending impressive streaks of gains. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index surged 5.1%, while the S&P 500 climbed 3.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 5.6%. Record highs were the theme of the month: the Nasdaq and S&P hit multiple peaks, delivering their best September since 2010 and strongest third quarter since 2020, while the Dow notched its fifth straight monthly gain. Up north, the TSX also marked its fifth consecutive monthly advance.
Let’s take a quick look at what moved the markets and how my three portfolios performed in September…