Relief Rally on the Horizon?
Exploring the sectors likely to gain – or stumble – if tensions ease.
Markets on both sides of the 49th parallel have been rattled by escalating Middle East tensions. With a potential ceasefire on the horizon, investors are watching closely to see which sectors could gain – or stumble – if hostilities ease.
Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.
February was a choppy month for the markets – or, as I like to call it, the month disrupted… by AI 😊. After a solid start, swings in artificial intelligence (AI) sentiment and broader economic worries became the defining themes, showing up differently across the four major North American indexes.
Trade Uncertainty Returns
Last week, the United States Supreme Court ruled that many of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal. Within days, the White House announced a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with plans to raise it to 15%.
Let’s take a look at how we got here – and the uncertainty it has created.
AI Disrupters
For the past few years, anything connected to artificial intelligence (AI) felt unstoppable. Investors poured money into AI-related companies, pushing valuations higher as excitement around the technology grew. There were concerns about the massive capital expenditures required to build AI infrastructure, but the dominant narrative was simple: invest now, dominate later.
This year, that tailwind has started to feel more like a headwind. Investors shifted from asking, “Who benefits from AI?” to “When will companies start seeing a return on all that investment?” – and now, “Who gets disrupted by it?” That change in mindset helped trigger the recent meltdowns.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.