Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.
Trade Uncertainty Returns
Last week, the United States Supreme Court ruled that many of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal. Within days, the White House announced a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with plans to raise it to 15%.
Let’s take a look at how we got here – and the uncertainty it has created.
AI Disrupters
For the past few years, anything connected to artificial intelligence (AI) felt unstoppable. Investors poured money into AI-related companies, pushing valuations higher as excitement around the technology grew. There were concerns about the massive capital expenditures required to build AI infrastructure, but the dominant narrative was simple: invest now, dominate later.
This year, that tailwind has started to feel more like a headwind. Investors shifted from asking, “Who benefits from AI?” to “When will companies start seeing a return on all that investment?” – and now, “Who gets disrupted by it?” That change in mindset helped trigger the recent meltdowns.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.
AI Turns From Tailwind to Disruptive Headwind
This past week, markets came under pressure as investor sentiment around software companies shifted sharply. While higher interest rates and stretched valuations had already been weighing on the sector, what really rattled investors was a growing belief that parts of the software and professional services industry may be facing real disruption, not just a temporary slowdown.
How Central Banks Set Interest Rates
Interest rates are one of those topics everyone hears about, but few people really understand how they actually work. With both the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) recently announcing that they were holding their policy rates steady, it felt like a good time to step back and look at what these rates actually are – and how they’re set.