Monthly Portfolio Update July 2025

Monthly Market and Portfolio Review

July was another milestone month for markets, powered by strong corporate earnings, growing artificial intelligence (AI) excitement, cautious central banks, and signs that both economies might be cooling. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), S&P 500 Index (S&P), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) all surged to record highs mid-month, fuelled by optimism on multiple fronts. But those gains didn’t fully stick – markets pulled back in the final stretch as fresh trade tensions and persistent inflation concerns crept back into the picture.

The S&P 500, TSX, and DJIA notched their third straight monthly gain, while the Nasdaq extended its streak to four. Big tech remained the market’s main engine, with Microsoft (NASD: MSFT) and Meta (NASD: META) reporting blockbuster earnings that boosted confidence in the future of AI and cloud computing. That momentum helped push the S&P and Nasdaq to new highs early in the month.

Meanwhile, central banks remained cautious. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.75%, signalling that while inflation is easing, rate cuts aren’t likely unless the economy weakens further. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) also left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.50%, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell sticking to a data-driven, wait-and-see message – making it clear any rate cuts probably won’t come until late 2025. For now, that gave markets some breathing room without fuelling overheating concerns.

On the trade front, early optimism helped lift sentiment. Deals with the European Union and Japan, along with talk of potential tariff rollbacks, gave investors more to cheer about. But the mood shifted in the final days of July when President Trump announced new tariffs on countries including Brazil and India, and imposed a steep 35% tariff on Canadian imports not covered by the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement. That, combined with sticky inflation data, was enough to drag markets off their highs to end the month.

So, while July brought fresh highs and renewed optimism, it also reminded us that trade policy and inflation haven’t gone away. Heading into August, us investors might need to buckle up – more trade headlines and mixed economic signals could make for a choppier ride.

Portfolio	Monthly Streak
Portfolio 1:	3 – month winning streak
Portfolio 2:	4 – month winning streak
Portfolio 3:	3 – month winning streak

While July didn’t quite match June’s momentum, it still turned out to be another solid month across the board. All three of my portfolios finished higher, as shown in the monthly performance chart below. Each posted weekly gains in four out of five weeks, with Portfolios 1 and 3 even outpacing the Nasdaq—the top-performing index in July. Portfolio 2 also held its ground, matching the S&P’s monthly gain, which came in second among the major indexes.

Portfolio 1 rose 5.0%, fuelled by a wave of record-setting highs across several holdings. Heavyweights Nvidia (NASD: NVDA) and Celestica (TSE: CLS) led the charge, with CLS hitting a fresh all-time high every single week of the month. Portfolio 2 posted a steady 2.2% gain – its fourth consecutive monthly advance, the longest streak among the three. Its results were driven more by consistent growth than big surges, though a few names did reach new highs.

Portfolio 3 claimed the top spot in July, jumping 7.5% on broad-based strength. It got a major lift from Shopify (TSX: SHOP) and portfolio newcomer Nvidia.

While July’s gains kept the winning streak alive, August might be more challenging. Seasonal volatility tends to creep in this time of year, and with inflation data, interest rate speculation, earnings season winding down, and tariffs set to hit all of America’s trading partners, markets could face more turbulence ahead. I’ll be watching closely for any buying opportunities – but for now, the goal is to keep the streak alive and close out the summer on a strong note. 😊

Monthly Portfolio & Index performance for July 2025.

What My Three Portfolios Did in July

Portfolio 1 for July 2025: UP

Activity

Sold: some Nvidia shares. See July 4 Weekly Update

Transferred Out: some Nvidia shares. See July 11 Weekly Update

Dividends Received this month:

Companies followed by DRIP (Dividend Re-Investment Plan) indicate additional shares were purchased with the dividend. Any cash leftover was added to the cash balance.

Canadian $

Telus (TSE: T) DRIP

BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: HOM.U)

Decisive Dividend Corp (YSE: DE) DRIP

Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN) DRIP

BCE Inc (TSE: BCE) DRIP

TD Bank (TSE: TD) DRIP

US $

Nvidia (NASD: NVDA)