Monthly Market and Portfolio Review

November didn’t feel like a typically strong month for the markets, even though most major indexes still finished in the green. After such a strong run over the past six months — including a choppy September and October — I had expected that momentum to carry right into year-end. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 Index (S&P), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) all stretched their monthly win streaks to seven, but the S&P and DJIA only managed it thanks to a late-month surge. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) wasn’t so lucky, spending most of the month trying — and failing — to climb out of the hole it had dug. With another month of gains, the TSX hit its longest winning streak since 2021.

Instead of the strong month I’d been expecting, the markets were quite volatile in November, a month that normally gives investors a smoother ride. The US government shutdown that began on October 1 carried into November, making it harder to get a clean reading on the American economy. At the same time, two major headwinds took over the narrative: uncertainty over whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would deliver another rate cut, and mounting concern that many artificial intelligence (AI) stocks — the same names driving so much of this year’s gains — were becoming too expensive. Those worries overshadowed what was actually a very solid earnings season.

For a while, November looked rough, especially with the S&P down as much as 4.4%. But sentiment slowly shifted. The shutdown ended, earnings kept holding steady, and fears of the Fed staying put at 4.0% gave way to growing optimism the Fed would lower the benchmark rate to support a softening labour market. Meanwhile, concerns about stretched AI valuations eased after Nvidia (NASD: NVDA), the face of the AI boom, posted another impressive earnings beat and raised guidance. What started as a month defined by headwinds turned into one fuelled by supportive tailwinds, setting the stage for a strong late-month rally.

In Canada, November shaped up to be a strong month for the TSX, led by the country’s commodity-heavy sectors and a renewed wave of rate-cut optimism. Gold, copper, and other metals surged, lifting mining stocks, while rising oil prices gave energy names a boost. Hopes that both the Bank of Canada and the Fed might ease rates also rekindled interest in more cyclical sectors, helping financials, industrials, and other economically sensitive names move higher.

On many days, the strength in commodities and growing rate-cut hopes more than offset weakness in technology companies, a reminder that the TSX’s resource-and-value orientation gives it a personality very different from its American cousins. By month’s end, that mix lifted the index to new all-time highs and extended its monthly winning streak, showing that when global conditions line up just right, Canada’s old-school engines – commodities, and steady value plays – can still take the lead.

As we head into the final month of the year, those same two headwinds are still hanging over the markets. The big “will they or won’t they” around rate cuts will finally be answered on December 10 when both central banks announce their latest moves. But stretched AI valuations aren’t disappearing anytime soon, and they could easily take some shine off the usual Santa Claus rally. Hopefully they don’t take too much of the “merry” out of the season. 😊

Portfolio	Monthly Streak
Portfolio 1:	1 – month losing streak
Portfolio 2:	8 – month winning streak
Portfolio 3:	1 – month losing streak

So much for being cautiously optimistic. Every time I think I’ve finally got a handle on things, the markets toss me a curveball and remind me I have absolutely no idea what’s coming next. As you can see in Chart 1 below, Portfolios 1 and 3 took it on the chin in November as the heavyweight technology pullback hit them squarely, while Portfolio 2 – less technology heavy and helped by rising oil prices – held up much better.

Portfolio 1 had the toughest month of the three, falling 7.7% after three straight losing weeks before a late-month rally helped soften the blow. Its heavy exposure to growth and AI-related names amplified the broader technology slump, making the decline sharper than what we saw in the markets overall. The first three weeks were especially rough, with names like Celsius (NASD: CELH), Navitas (NASD: NVTS), Cloudflare (NYSE: NET), Arista (NYSE: ANET), and Cameco (TSE: CCO) tumbling into double-digit losses and only about a third of holdings finishing in the green each week. The turnaround finally came in the last week of November, when Alphabet’s (NASD: GOOGL) massive AI-chip deal with Meta (NASD: META) sparked a broad rally. With 84% of the portfolio climbing – led by strong rebounds in Celestica (TSE: CLS), Navitas, Hammond Power Solutions (TSE: HPS.A), and Cameco – Portfolio 1 managed to claw back a meaningful chunk of its earlier losses.

Portfolio 2, on the other hand, was quietly solid. While the broader markets wobbled and the other portfolios struggled under technology driven volatility, this one did exactly what it was designed to do: stay balanced. After a mix of modest ups and downs, Portfolio 2 finished November with a small gain, making it the only one of the three to end the month in positive territory. Losses were limited, with no major blowups, and the setbacks – like Zoetis (NYSE: ZTS) and Hammond Power Solutions – were eventually outweighed by strength elsewhere. Energy names held steady, and Aritzia (TSE: ATZ) kept building momentum with multiple new highs. By the final week, 78% of holdings were rising, led by Hammond Power Solutions, Zoetis, and iA Financial (TSE: IAG) – enough to push the portfolio to a 0.6% monthly gain. It lived up to its role as the “steady one,” quietly outperforming the others in an otherwise choppy month.

Portfolio 3 also had a difficult stretch, dropping 7.2% as its growth-heavy lineup made it especially vulnerable to the technology selloff. Three of the four weeks landed in the red, with sharp pullbacks in goeasy (TSE: GSY), Shopify (TSE: SHOP), Cloudflare, and Nvidia weighing heavily on returns. Even when the markets bounced, recoveries in this portfolio were slower and less consistent. The pattern through the month was clear: the losers hit harder than the winners could offset. Early November saw the steepest damage, including goeasy’s 30% slide after missing expectations and several technology names posting double-digit drops. Mid-month remained volatile as Nvidia and Shopify, the portfolio’s two largest positions, continued to pull back. The bright spots did emerge in the final week with 75% of the portfolio recording a weekly win. But even with that strong finish, the earlier losses were too much to fully recover, leaving Portfolio 3 down sharply for November.

Heading into December, I’m choosing to look at November as a reminder, sometimes a painful one, that volatility is just part of the investing journey. Technology heavy portfolios like Portfolios 1 and 3 will always swing harder, balanced portfolios are more even-keeled, and every so often the market humbles you right when you think you’ve got it figured out. With major rate decisions around the corner and the usual year-end optimism trying to push through lingering worries about AI valuations, December could still surprise us. Here’s hoping the final stretch of 2025 finishes on a stronger, merrier note. 😊

Monthly Portfolio & Index performance — Chart 1: Monthly Performance

Year to date, Portfolio 1 is still out in front with a strong 24.4% gain, even after giving up a bit of ground in a choppy November. Portfolio 2 moved into second place, lifting its year-to-date return to 22.3% and standing out as the only one of the three to finish the month in positive territory. That strength helped it leap ahead of Portfolio 3, which had a rough November and saw its 2025 gain slide to 19.6%.

Among the major indexes, the TSX has now surged ahead of all three portfolios with a year-to-date gain of 26.9%. The S&P and the DJIA inched higher to 16.4% and 12.2%, respectively, while a volatile November knocked the Nasdaq’s year-to-date performance down to 21.0%.

11 Months YTD Portfolio & Index performance — Chart 2: YTD Performance

What My Three Portfolios Did in November

Portfolio 1 for November 2025: DOWN

Activity

Bought: Constellation Software (TSE: CSU) see November 14 update.

Dividends Received this month:

Companies followed by DRIP (Dividend Re-Investment Plan) indicate additional shares were purchased with the dividend. Any cash leftover was added to the cash balance.

Canadian $

TD Bank (TSE: TD) DRIP

Bank of Nova Scotia (TSE: BNS) DRIP

BSR REIT (TSE: HOM.U)

Decisive Dividend Corp. (TSXV: DE) DRIP

Pulse Seismic Inc (TSE: PSD) DRIP

Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: DIR.UN) DRIP

Tourmaline Oil Corp (TSE: TOU)

TMX Group (TSE: X)

US $

Apple (NASD: AAPL)

Costco Wholesale (NASD: COST)