Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.
February was a choppy month for the markets – or, as I like to call it, the month disrupted… by AI 😊. After a solid start, swings in artificial intelligence (AI) sentiment and broader economic worries became the defining themes, showing up differently across the four major North American indexes.
Three Reports, One Story: Connecting the Economic Dots
This week gave us something we don’t often see – all three major US economic reports landed at once. Because of the recent partial government shutdown, the labour report, retail sales data, and CPI inflation numbers were released in the same week. Normally, these reports are spaced out, with jobs data arriving first and inflation and retail sales following mid-month. Seeing them together offers a rare opportunity to step back and view the American economy through three connected lenses at the same time.
AI Turns From Tailwind to Disruptive Headwind
This past week, markets came under pressure as investor sentiment around software companies shifted sharply. While higher interest rates and stretched valuations had already been weighing on the sector, what really rattled investors was a growing belief that parts of the software and professional services industry may be facing real disruption, not just a temporary slowdown.
Nvidia Saves the Day
Heading into this week, investors were nervous. Many were worried about a possible artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and that valuations for leading AI and technology companies had gotten overheated. All eyes were on the star of the emerging AI industry — Nvidia (NASD: NVDA). Would the company beat, meet, or miss its revenue targets? And perhaps just as important, what did it expect for the next quarter?
Nvidia isn’t just another technology company, it’s the engine behind the AI boom and, at times, the most valuable company on the planet. Its chips power everything from ChatGPT-style AI to self-driving cars to the massive datacentres that keep the digital world running. When Nvidia reports earnings, markets pay attention because it often sets the tone for the entire technology sector.
The US Government Reopens – What It Means for Investors
The US government had been shut down since October 1 and finally re-opened on November 13. In my October 1 Weekly Update, [link to oct 1] I talked about what caused the shutdown and what the likely impacts might be from an investing perspective. Now that it’s over, it’s a good time to look at what ended the standoff — and what it means for us as investors.