Trade Tensions Flare, Again
Since President Trump returned to office in January, his administration has been trying to reshape global trade in America’s favour. One of his earliest targets was China, the world’s second largest economy, trailing only the US. Since both sides have recently began ratcheting up the trade tension again, with new tariffs, export controls, and tit-for-tat sanctions making headlines, I thought it would be a good time to review the situation and what it could mean for investors everywhere – including here in Canada.
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Monthly Portfolio Update September 2025
September flipped the script on its usual reputation as a tough month for stocks. North American markets finished strong, capping a solid third quarter and extending impressive streaks of gains. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index surged 5.1%, while the S&P 500 climbed 3.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 5.6%. Record highs were the theme of the month: the Nasdaq and S&P hit multiple peaks, delivering their best September since 2010 and strongest third quarter since 2020, while the Dow notched its fifth straight monthly gain. Up north, the TSX also marked its fifth consecutive monthly advance.
Let’s take a quick look at what moved the markets and how my three portfolios performed in September…
Weekly Update for the week ending October 3, 2025
A Government Shutdown Doesn’t Mean a Market Meltdown
This past week, funding for the US government expired at midnight on September 30. With Republicans and Democrats dug in, no deal was reached to pass a temporary spending bill and avert a shutdown. As a result, the government was suspended for the 15th time since 1981, halting scientific research, financial oversight, environmental cleanup, and a wide range of other services. About 750,000 federal workers were ordered to stay home, while others – including the armed forces and Border Patrol agents – continued working without pay (they’ll be paid retroactively once operations resume). A shutdown usually doesn’t send markets into free fall, but it does tend to stir up volatility on both sides of the border. So, let’s take a look at what a US government shutdown actually is and what it means for us investors.
Weekly Update for the week ending September 19, 2025
Decisions, Decisions
This week, all eyes were on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) as both central banks faced the same question: should they finally ease up on high interest rates? With inflation cooling, jobless claims ticking higher, and consumers growing cautious, markets were betting heavily on cuts – and both banks delivered. For the Fed, it was the first cut since December 2024, while the BoC hadn’t lowered its benchmark rate since March 2025.
What Happens When Central Banks Cut Rates?
When central banks cut rates, it’s like turning down the interest on your credit card or mortgage – borrowing gets cheaper, and spending gets easier. But depending on whether it’s the BoC, the Fed, or both, the ripple effects for us investors can look a little different.
Weekly Update for the week ending August 8, 2025
An Ominous Start to a Historically Volatile Month
Well, August didn’t waste any time making waves. Both the Canadian and US markets opened the month with sharp declines on August 1, but the storm clouds actually started forming the day before. President Trump signed an executive order imposing new import duties, ranging from 10% to 41%, on about 90 countries. Canada was hit with a hefty 35% rate, alongside India, Taiwan, and others. The tariffs didn’t take effect until August 7, but the announcement alone rattled markets, fuelling worries about renewed trade tensions and rising inflation risks.
Then came Friday’s US jobs report, which landed with a thud. Payroll growth in July came in roughly 25% below expectations, and to make matters worse, May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs. That raised fresh concerns about a slowing economy.
Weekly Update for the week ending August 1, 2025
Liberation Day, part 2
President Trump kicked off a new wave of tariffs this week, reigniting global trade tensions. The move came just days after progress with the European Union (EU) and Japan had boosted market optimism – but that optimism is now giving way to concern.
The latest action includes a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by CUSMA, which caught many by surprise. It also targets exports from Brazil, India, and other trading partners, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 25%. These new duties hit a wide range of products, from industrial parts and electronics to everyday consumer goods, raising fears of a broader trade war.