Nvidia Saves the Day
Heading into this week, investors were nervous. Many were worried about a possible artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and that valuations for leading AI and technology companies had gotten overheated. All eyes were on the star of the emerging AI industry — Nvidia (NASD: NVDA). Would the company beat, meet, or miss its revenue targets? And perhaps just as important, what did it expect for the next quarter?
Nvidia isn’t just another technology company, it’s the engine behind the AI boom and, at times, the most valuable company on the planet. Its chips power everything from ChatGPT-style AI to self-driving cars to the massive datacentres that keep the digital world running. When Nvidia reports earnings, markets pay attention because it often sets the tone for the entire technology sector.
This quarter, Nvidia didn’t just meet expectations – it crushed them. Revenue hit US$57 billion, topping the roughly US$55 billion analysts forecast. The standout was the datacentre division, home to Nvidia’s AI chips, which pulled in US$51 billion, up ~66% year over year. And looking ahead, Nvidia forecast around US$65 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, again beating Wall Street’s expectations.
CEO Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for AI hardware is still explosive. Orders from cloud giants are massive, and the newest Blackwell chips are selling faster than they can make them. The AI infrastructure build-out is clearly in full throttle.
For investors, this is huge. Nvidia’s results signal that AI isn’t hype – it’s scaling. Because Nvidia sits at the centre of the AI ecosystem, its momentum often lifts other technology names too. As long as demand stays strong and geopolitical risks (like export restrictions) don’t interfere, this could keep driving technology markets higher.
Had Nvidia only met or missed expectations, the reaction could have been very different: technology and AI-linked stocks might have pulled back sharply, investor enthusiasm around AI growth could have cooled, and the broader market might have paused – or worse. That shows just how pivotal Nvidia is: its results can sway not only the AI sector but the technology market as a whole.
As a (very, very, very small) owner of Nvidia, I’m relieved they had a strong third quarter. Not only did it boost the share price, but it also lifted many other technology companies tied to AI. Since Nvidia is the largest holding in two of my portfolios, this news provides a solid lift for them – both directly from Nvidia and indirectly from the positive tailwinds across other AI-related companies, giving all three portfolios a boost. 😊
While Nvidia’s blockbuster quarter grabbed headlines, it wasn’t the only thing moving markets this week. Investors were also digesting economic updates, from Canadian inflation to US labour data, alongside corporate earnings. Here’s a look at what moved the markets and how my portfolios fared.
Items that may only interest or educate me ….
Canadian Economic news, US Economic news, ….
Canadian Economic news
This past week’s key economic data that the Bank of Canada (BoC) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The latest CPI report from Statistics Canada showed inflation rising 2.2% year over year in October, a slight cooldown from September’s 2.4% pace. Analysts were looking for 2.1%, so it came in just a touch hotter than expected. Month to month, prices rose 0.2%, matching estimates and following a modest 0.1% gain in September.
The month’s biggest mover was clothing and footwear, which jumped 1.3%, while gas prices fell 4.8% from September. The bigger story, though, is the year-over-year drop in gasoline: prices were down 9.4% in October, compared with a 4.1% decline the month before. That’s doing a lot of the heavy lifting in pulling headline inflation lower.
Food inflation remains elevated at 3.4% year over year, but even that has eased from September’s 4.0%. Shelter costs, everything from rent to mortgage interest, rose 2.5%, just a shade below September’s 2.6%, and they’re still one of the most stubborn pressure points for households.
Where things get tricky is the BoC’s preferred core measure. Core CPI rose 2.7% year over year, up from 2.4% in September. On a monthly basis, core inflation jumped 0.7%, a sharp turn from the slight decline the month before. That shows that even though headline (all items) inflation is drifting lower, the underlying price pressures the BoC watches most closely are still running hotter than they’d like, reinforcing their view that the current 2.5% rate doesn’t need to be adjusted.
For consumers, this mix means the cost of living is easing in places, but not enough to shift the interest-rate environment anytime soon. The BoC pays close attention to core inflation, and with those numbers picking up, there’s not much room for another rate cut at their December meeting.
So, we’re in that frustrating middle ground: inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to give the Bank confidence to change direction. “Good enough” isn’t “great,” and until the core data cools more consistently, the Bank is likely to stay cautious.
Retail Trade
After a small uptick in August, Canadian retail sales cooled in September, hinting at more careful spending by households. Statistics Canada’s report showed a 0.7% decline, following the previous month’s 1% gain. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 3.4%, down from 4.9%, signaling that retail growth is slowing compared with last year.
The decline was broad-based, with six of nine major retail subsectors seeing lower sales. Motor vehicle and parts dealers led the drop at ‑2.9%, while gasoline stations were one of the few bright spots, rising 1.9% in dollar terms, though volumes actually fell. Over the past year, the biggest gains came from clothing, accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage, and leather goods retailers, which saw sales climb 11.2%, while building materials, garden equipment, and supplies dealers fell 1.1%.
Looking at core retail sales, which strip out volatile categories like gas and motor vehicles, September was essentially flat following a 1.1% rise in August, and core sales are up 4.1% year over year. That shows underlying demand is holding, even as headline numbers soften.
Taken together, the data suggest more cautious consumers. Soft monthly and quarterly numbers (July -0.8%, August +0.1%, September -0.7%) indicate households may be pulling back, especially on big-ticket items like vehicles. Yet the steady core sales hint that some sectors are holding up despite the slowdown.
Looking ahead, early estimates for October suggest retail sales were relatively flat, continuing the trend of soft consumer spending and reinforcing that households are still cautious.
Canadian Market Volatility
Canada’s volatility gauge – the S&P/TSX 60 Volatility Index (VIXC) – spent the week on slightly shakier ground than usual. It opened around 17.83 and hovered between 18 and 20 as investors digested a mix of inflation data, earnings, and shifting rate expectations.
Mid-week, the VIXC briefly shot above 25 after Canada’s latest inflation report showed core prices ticking higher, trimming hopes for a December rate cut. That spike didn’t last, though. The index quickly slipped back toward 20, then fell below 15.5 as Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings sent a wave of optimism across global technology markets, Canada included.
The calm didn’t hold forever. As the initial excitement faded, the VIXC drifted upward to the 18 range, finishing the week just under 18 at 17.96 – squarely in that “cautious but not stressed” zone.
For anyone new to it, the VIXC is basically Canada’s market mood meter. Low readings (usually in the low teens) suggest smooth sailing, while higher numbers point to nervous investors bracing for bumps. Ending the week near 18 signals a watchful, slightly tense market – alert, but far from panic mode.
US Economic news
This past week’s key data points that the Federal Reserve (Fed) considers when deciding whether to raise or lower the interest rate.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes
The Fed released the minutes from its October 28–29 meeting this week, giving investors a clearer sense of what drove its decision to cut interest rates by another 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the second straight rate cut after roughly nine months of holding steady at 4.5%, even as inflation bounced around and economic momentum shifted.
The tone of the minutes shows a central bank that’s easing policy, but doing so carefully. Officials noted that the economy is still growing at a moderate pace, though hiring has cooled and inflation has edged higher compared with earlier in the year. That helps explain why the Fed is willing to trim rates, but not without hesitation.
The real eye-opener was the split inside the committee. Some members argued the economy could use more support, even favouring a 0.5% cut, while others worried that moving too fast might undo the progress made on inflation and preferred keeping rates at 4.25%. Several officials stressed that they want clearer signs of improvement before committing to what comes next.
For investors, the takeaway is pretty straightforward: the Fed is easing, but it’s not in any rush. Markets probably shouldn’t expect a rapid series of cuts. And for us Canadians, when the US takes a cautious approach, that tone usually spills into our markets too as we wait for these rate cuts to work their way through the economy.
Labour Data
The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics finally released its September Employment Situation Summary after weeks of delay, and the numbers landed with a bit more energy than anyone expected. Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 119,000 jobs, a sharp turnaround from August’s downwardly revised drop of 4,000 and well ahead of the 50,000 new jobs economists were looking for. Even so, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4% from 4.3%, showing a labour market that’s still moving – just not at full speed.
Wages told a similar story. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in September, slightly cooler than August’s 0.3%, while the year-over-year pace came in at 3.7%. Solid, but nothing overheated.
Overall, it paints a “steady but softening” picture. The US is still adding jobs, which reassures markets the economy isn’t rolling over and supports the case for rates staying put. But the uptick in unemployment and easing wage growth hint at pockets of cooling that could justify a cut, just not urgently. With that mix, the Fed has very little incentive to move quickly, and more analysts are pulling back from the idea of a December cut.
What really muddies the waters is the data gap. The government shutdown prevented the full collection of October’s household-survey data, so we won’t get a standalone October report. Instead, October and November will be bundled together and released in December. Making it even tougher for Fed officials: the BLS has pushed the November report to six days after the Fed’s December meeting. That means this September release is the last full labour snapshot the Fed will have before making its final rate decision of 2025.
For us investors, it all adds up to a “steady, not spectacular” backdrop. The economy isn’t breaking, but it’s definitely cooling around the edges. Companies still have room to grow – just in a calmer, less turbocharged environment. 😊
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
The University of Michigan’s final CSI for November came in at 51, slightly above the expected 50.3 but down 4.9% from October’s 53.6. Compared with a year ago, sentiment has dropped a striking 29%.
Digging deeper, the Current Economic Conditions gauge, which reflects how people feel about their jobs and personal finances, fell to 51.1, down 12.8% from last month and 20% from a year ago, highlighting just how cautious consumers feel right now. This marks one of the lowest levels in the survey’s history. The Expectations Index, which looks at what consumers anticipate over the next six months, edged up slightly to 51.0, a 1.4% gain from October but still down 33.7% from November 2024. On the inflation front, consumers expect prices to rise about 4.5% over the next year and 3.4% over the next five years.
The picture this paints is one of cautious consumers. Many report feeling worse off right now, with personal finances and big-ticket purchases taking a hit. Factors like a prolonged government shutdown and higher unemployment have played a role. As well, the perceived probability of losing one’s job is also worse this month and at its highest level since 2020, the year of the global pandemic. That said, there’s a glimmer of hope for the months ahead, with expectations slightly brighter. Interestingly, households with larger stock portfolios feel significantly more positive, buoyed by gains over the past six months – though even that optimism could be tempered by recent market volatility.
For us investors, this drop in sentiment is worth noting. Consumers’ caution could translate into weaker spending, which matters because consumer demand drives a large portion of economic growth. Companies relying heavily on discretionary spending may face headwinds, while those with strong pricing power, resilient business models, and less sensitivity to consumer sentiment are positioned to weather the caution. This is why I want to own the world’s best companies – they tend to continue to outperform in tough economic times.
American Market Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – the market’s “fear gauge” – had quite a ride this week. It opened near 19.58 and drifted higher as investors braced for Nvidia’s earnings, hovering around 22 before finishing the day at 23.69, its highest close since April 24. The next session brought a quick sigh of relief when the VIX dipped below 20… but that didn’t stick. Concerns about stretched AI valuations and the possibility of the Fed keeping rates steady sent the fear gauge shooting past 27.5.
By the end of the week, the VIX eased back to 23.43. Not exactly calm waters, but at least the needle moved in the right direction – lower.
Think of the VIX as the market’s mood ring. Even with that late-week pullback, anything above 25 shows investors are uneasy. It’s not full-on panic, but definitely a “seatbelt fastened” kind of vibe as markets wait for clearer signals from earnings and the Fed.
Weekly Market and Portfolio Review
For the week, the TSX (SPTSX) dipped 0.5%, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.9%, the DJIA (INDU) declined 1.9% and the Nasdaq (CCMP) dropped 2.7%.
| Index | Weekly Streak |
| TSX: | 1 – week losing streak |
| S&P: | 1 – week losing streak |
| DJIA: | 1 – week losing streak |
| Nasdaq: | 3 – week losing streak |
November continues to be a grind, with all four major North American indexes — the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index (TSX), the S&P 500 (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq) — finishing the week in the red and sitting well below their recent highs. For the US markets, it was the roughest stretch in seven months, echoing the nerves last seen during the trade-related volatility earlier in the year. The S&P and DJIA are now more than 4% off their peaks, and the Nasdaq has slipped over 7%. The pullback seems to be driven more by shifting sentiment than by anything earnings or fundamentals are signalling.
Earnings dominated the week, and everything revolved around Nvidia. As the backbone of the global AI boom, its earnings reports tend to move more than just its own stock. This time, though, the pressure was especially intense. Concerns about lofty valuations, talk of cooling AI demand, and even some big investment funds trimming positions had investors bracing for a miss that could rattle the entire technology sector. Instead, Nvidia smashed expectations and issued strong guidance, signalling that AI spending remains robust. The report briefly eased bubble chatter and boosted technology stocks, helping the indexes break their four-day losing streak. Markets jumped again the next morning on Nvidia’s momentum, but the optimism faded by the afternoon. Indexes reversed sharply, giving the S&P its biggest intraday swing since the onset of trade tensions in April, as worries about an AI bubble and uncertainty over a December rate cut resurfaced.
Retail earnings brought things back down to earth. Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), and other major retailers showed that American consumers are still spending, just more carefully. Essentials continue to hold up, while discretionary categories like electronics and home décor have softened. It’s an early sign that the consumer – the engine of the US recovery – may finally be cooling.
Labour data complicated things further. The delayed September jobs report came in stronger than expected, suggesting the economy isn’t weakening as much as feared. But a small uptick in unemployment showed that conditions aren’t completely firm either. With no November jobs or inflation data available before the Fed’s final meeting of the year, expectations for a December rate cut dimmed. Then, the very next day, a Fed official hinted that a cut could happen without jeopardizing progress on getting inflation down to the Fed’s target of 2%. Markets loved the sound of that, and the indexes finished the week on a more positive note.
In Canada, the TSX held up better than the major American indexes, though it’s still down over 2% from its recent record high. Gold and energy helped cushion the drop. On the economic front, Canada’s latest inflation report came in mixed, which cooled hopes for a December rate cut from the BoC. Retail sales added to the cautious tone, showing that Canadians are beginning to pull back on spending, especially on big-ticket items like vehicles — a signal that economic momentum may be slowing.
Two pieces of US news also shaped the TSX this week. Nvidia’s strong results briefly boosted Canadian technology stocks, though concerns about stretched valuations and AI froth quickly pulled the sector back down. Then, at the end of the week, rising expectations of a potential US rate cut helped the TSX claw back much of the week’s losses, and providing a more upbeat tone heading into next week.
| Portfolio | Weekly Streak |
| Portfolio 1: | 3 – week losing streak |
| Portfolio 2: | 1 – week losing streak |
| Portfolio 3: | 3 – week losing streak |
Going into this week, I was a bit nervous – Nvidia is the largest holding in Portfolios 1 and 3, and a stumble there could have dragged both portfolios and much of the technology sector down. Considering all three portfolios have a technology bias (Portfolio 2 less so), as Marvin the Martian might say, “that would not have been a good thing. Not a good thing at all.” Fortunately, Nvidia delivered, preventing what could have been a really ugly week. Instead, it was simply an ugly week.
Portfolio 1 had the roughest week, falling 3.5% and extending its weekly losing streak. Only 34% of companies in the portfolio finished higher. Notable decliners included Datadog (NASD: DDOG) down 13%, and Cloudflare (NYSE: NET) and Arista Networks (NASD: ANET), both off 11%. On the bright side, Alphabet (NASD: GOOGL) hit a record high after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) invested US$4.9 billion — a clear vote of confidence in Google. It’s nice to know I’m in good company as an owner. 😊
Portfolio 2, more balanced by design, softened the blow, dipping only 1.9%, with 53% of holdings finishing higher. There were no standout gains, but also no major losses, which is exactly the stability I expect from this portfolio. I was especially pleased to see newcomer Aritzia (TSE: ATZ) set a record high — the first of many, I hope. 😊
Portfolio 3 landed roughly in the middle, down 2.4%. About half its holdings managed small gains, but Cloudflare’s 11% drop, coupled with a network outage early in the week, highlights the ongoing challenges technology companies faced.
At the end of the week, the portfolios felt a lot like the markets themselves – a mix of ups and mostly downs, with a few bright spots limiting the damage. While Nvidia didn’t post a weekly gain, its stellar earnings report helped steady the technology sector and my tech-heavy portfolios. Hopefully, the investor optimism and upward momentum at the end of the week carries over into next week, and we can finish the month with gains across the board. 😊
Companies on the Radar
After a flurry of buying and selling lately, it’s actually kind of nice to have a week where nothing new jumped onto my radar. Gives me a chance to catch my breath and get back to digging deeper into the six companies already on my list.
- GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE): This is the large American aviation and defence business that remained after General Electric split into three separate companies in 2024. It has been on a strong run thanks to high demand for commercial jet engines as global air travel continues to recover. The company focuses on aircraft propulsion systems and services for both commercial and military customers, and it’s also moving into drones. As a global leader in jet engines and aircraft systems, GE Aerospace offers exposure to long-term trends in travel, defence spending, and emerging aviation technology.
- Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASD: NSSC): A small US company that provides security hardware and systems like smart locks, intrusion alarms, fire alarms, and access control solutions. It sells through a network of distributors and installers, and has been increasing its recurring service revenue – something investors usually like to see. As demand for security and smart home products grows, Napco has multiple avenues for expansion.
- Corning Incorporated (NYSE: GLW): A large US company known for specialty glass and optical technologies. Corning is the longstanding supplier of the glass used in iPhones and is also benefiting from the surge in demand for high quality fiber optics as datacentres expand to support AI and cloud computing. The company is riding several tailwinds with long-term growth potential.
- Mainstreet Equity Corp. (TSE: MEQ): A Calgary-based real estate company focused on mid-market apartment buildings across Western Canada. Their business model is straightforward: buy underperforming buildings, renovate them, improve operations, and increase rental income. With strong demand for rentals, a disciplined approach, and shares that trade below the estimated value of the properties, Mainstreet offers a combination of income, stability, and long-term upside.
- Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE: BROS): A rapidly expanding drive-thru coffee chain in the US, known for its energetic customer service and customizable drinks. The company is aiming to open at least 160 new locations by the end of 2025 and has long-term goals of surpassing 2,000 stores. Strong brand loyalty, especially in the Western US, makes this an interesting high-growth story – though still in an aggressive build-out phase.
- XPEL, Inc. (NASD: XPEL): A growing, founder-led maker of protective films, coatings, and related products – best known for automotive paint protection film. XPEL has been expanding into window films and architectural applications, and sells through multiple channels, giving it both reach and control. It’s a company with a focused niche and strong brand recognition in that niche.
As always, these are not buy recommendations. Make sure to do your own research and choose investments that fit your personal financial goals.
The Radar Check was last updated November 21, 2025.
That’s a wrap for this week, thanks for reading – may your portfolio stay green and your dividends steady. See you next time!