Hawk or Dove? The Fed’s Next Chapter
Jerome Powell’s era at the Federal Reserve has come to an end, and Kevin Warsh now takes over one of the most powerful positions in global finance. With inflation, interest rates, and economic growth all hanging in the balance, investors are now asking the big question: will the Fed’s next chapter be led by a hawk or a dove?
One of the hardest parts of investing isn’t deciding what to buy – it’s knowing when to sell. This week let’s take a closer look at the often-overlooked “other side” of investing and the reasons long-term investors sometimes decide to move on from a stock. From changing company fundamentals and stretched valuations to shifting goals and better opportunities elsewhere and explain why selling doesn’t always mean you made a mistake.
While March ended as one of the toughest months in years, April delivered a strong rebound. All four major indexes recovered sharply, erasing losses and posting one of their best monthly performances since the pandemic rebound in 2020.
Earnings season is giving investors a fresh look under the hood of the companies driving the markets. With roughly 20 holdings across my three portfolios reporting results this past week alone, the focus has shifted from headlines to fundamentals. Strong reports from major technology companies like NASD:AAPL continue lifting both individual stocks and the broader market, while weaker guidance can quickly shift sentiment the other way. This week’s commentary looks at what earnings reports really tell investors, what I focus on when analyzing them, and how the latest results helped shape the markets this week.
Rising oil prices have been one of the biggest stories in the markets recently, driven by the US/Israel-Iran conflict and shifting supply dynamics. This week, a major development – the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ – adds another layer of uncertainty, with potential implications for inflation, interest rates, and the direction of markets.