Oil Surges, Volatility Returns
In February, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism and anxiety were the main winds that buffeted the markets (and buffet they did 😊). But as the month closed, a very different storm rolled in. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, shifting investor focus from AI concerns and earnings reports to energy supply and global stability.
Trade Uncertainty Returns
Last week, the United States Supreme Court ruled that many of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal. Within days, the White House announced a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with plans to raise it to 15%.
Let’s take a look at how we got here – and the uncertainty it has created.
AI Disrupters
For the past few years, anything connected to artificial intelligence (AI) felt unstoppable. Investors poured money into AI-related companies, pushing valuations higher as excitement around the technology grew. There were concerns about the massive capital expenditures required to build AI infrastructure, but the dominant narrative was simple: invest now, dominate later.
This year, that tailwind has started to feel more like a headwind. Investors shifted from asking, “Who benefits from AI?” to “When will companies start seeing a return on all that investment?” – and now, “Who gets disrupted by it?” That change in mindset helped trigger the recent meltdowns.
From Wild West to Launchpad: The Story of the TSXV
A few weeks ago, I took a look at the history of Canada’s premier stock market – the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) [link to Nov. 28]. Also known as the big board, it’s the top rung on the TSX ladder. I also mentioned its junior counterpart, the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV). This week, I thought I’d follow up with a closer look at this often overlooked but essential part of Canada’s market ecosystem. So, without further ado, in the words of Daenerys Stormborn – “Let’s begin.”
Will Santa Show Up for the Markets This Year?
Typically, September and October are considered two of the softer months for the markets, while November and December are traditionally stronger. This year has been the opposite, with a surprisingly solid September and October. By the end of October, I was feeling optimistic – with two of the more volatile months in the rear-view mirror, a strong finish to the year seemed likely. Unfortunately, that optimism didn’t pan out, as November came in weaker than usual and barely avoided slipping into the red.
Now December is here, and I’m not sure what to expect. December is usually a strong month for stocks, thanks to what’s known as the Santa Claus Rally. But some analysts are suggesting we may not see Santa’s visit this time around, which got me wondering why a month that’s typically upbeat might fall short. So why do analysts think Santa may sit this year out? Let’s take a brief look – but first, what makes December a strong month?
Nvidia Saves the Day
Heading into this week, investors were nervous. Many were worried about a possible artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and that valuations for leading AI and technology companies had gotten overheated. All eyes were on the star of the emerging AI industry — Nvidia (NASD: NVDA). Would the company beat, meet, or miss its revenue targets? And perhaps just as important, what did it expect for the next quarter?
Nvidia isn’t just another technology company, it’s the engine behind the AI boom and, at times, the most valuable company on the planet. Its chips power everything from ChatGPT-style AI to self-driving cars to the massive datacentres that keep the digital world running. When Nvidia reports earnings, markets pay attention because it often sets the tone for the entire technology sector.